Year end...

I have actually been trading this account for the last few days... even though I haven't been updating this site. It hasn't been going that well... but it isn't anything out of the ordinary. Now, here are some predictions for the coming year, which I'll review this time next year.

1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.

Happy New Year!

(I will restart regular updates on Monday, January 5th.)

Perhaps the 3rd time will be a charm...

...or not. Who knows? Trade triggered. Producing profits so far.




Current open equity: $76.06
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,370 EUR/USD at 1.4024 (avg.)
Current exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Yet another kick in the crotch

EUR failed to stay down. Setting up again, this time wider.

Pending order: Short 1,662 EUR/USD at 1.3958
Initial stop: 1.4031
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Current open equity: $70.35
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 0

This trade hasn't been easy....

I got knocked off the stack trade over the weekend, and nearly got stopped out of the whole position. EUR has come back down, and I've re-entered another short to try and stack on more size again. That trade started out well, then turned and nearly stopped out, and now is on it's way back to profits. Wild times indeed.

Entry on new stack trade: Short 1,322 EUR/USD at 1.3970
Stop: 1.4022

Current open equity: $79.09
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,030 EUR/USD at 1.4043 (avg)
Current exposure: $7.00 or 53.89% of open profit at risk

Whole trade now risk-free.

Moved stop to entry point on main position.


Current open equity: $84.44
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: 0

Success!

The stack trade is now risk free.

Current open equity: $82.45
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: $9.56 or 15.00% of starting equity

Stack on

The trade is triggered and looks like shit so far.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,844 EUR/USD at 1.4064 (avg)
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Stack attempt

Having broken down heavily, EUR is consolidatin around 1.40. If it should break the lows of the last 2 30-minute bars, I'm going to go short and hopefully get some more size into this trade. I'm keeping it close... only 44 pips at risk and $5, which represents a little less than half the open profit.

Pending order (2): Short 1,136 EUR/USD at 1.3992
Pending order (3): Long 568 EUR/USD at 1.3948
Initial stop: 1.4036
Initial exposure: 44 pips, $5.00 or 37.57% of open profits.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Trade triggered

I got stopped in at around 4 am, and the trade started producing profits right away. If the opportunity to get more size on comes along, I'll be taking it. Also, I know that I haven't updated the chart on the top of the screen for a couple of days. I've been designing a strategy for another account for the past couple of days, but I will get to it.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

New idea

Scratched the Aussie trade entry. Setting up to short the Euro if it breaks the day's low instead.

Pending order (1): Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Initial stop: 1.4315
Initial exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up yet again...

Long if this hour's high breaks. Getting close to this drawdown exceeding the largest one to date. There are going to be lots of these on the way. When will this one end? We'll see...

Pending order (1): Long 1,292 at 0.7072
Initial stop: 0.6998
Initial exposure: 74 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And again...

Whacked again. Setting up again right after I log this...

Previous equity: $74.91
Change: -$11.22
% Change: -14.98%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

Here we go again...

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Current exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Reposition

Lowering all prices by 44 pips to play off a break of this hour's high instead.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Initial stop: 0.7005
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Set 'em up again...

This time the trigger is last hour's high on Oz.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7109
Initial stop: 0.7049
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Another one bites the dust...

Stopped out. I'll set this pair up again as soon as I finish logging this one...

Previous equity: $88.13
Change: -$13.22
% Change: -15.00%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

Ok, here we go... let the losing begin!



Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Current exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Next idea...

Oz has formed an inside bar on the hourly chart. If the top of it is broken, I will be long.

Pending order (1): Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Initial stop: 0.7056
Initial exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade off.

JPY, after having broken down nicely and nearly hit the point where I would have moved my stop, turned around and took me out. i guess the drawdown was not over yet. No matter. Next trade...

Previous equity: $103.73
Change: -$15.60
% Change: -15.04%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

USD/JPY took out the day's low, and the trade has started off producing profits right away. That's what I like to see. I'll now be looking for an opportunity to move the stop to breakeven if I don't get stopped out first.



Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: Short 2,128 USD/JPY at 88.27
Current exposure: 65 pips, $15.60 or 15.04%

Next idea...

The next idea is to short the USD against the JPY. If this hour's low gets taken out, it should mark a good place to get in. This hour's high marks a good place to get out if I'm wrong.

Pending order (1): Short 2,128 USD/JPY at 88.27
Initial stop: 88.92
Initial exposure: 65 pips, $15.60 or 15.04%

Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratched out

Now that the US Dollar is the big joke currency instead of the Yen, this old GBP/JPY carry trade just ain't what it used to be. Stopped out after having been up nearly 400 pips. One more in the long, frustrating series of whacks. Such is the nature of trading. The next idea will be forthcoming.

Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Nice start to the week...

GBP/JPY has burst higher this morning. This trade is up by over 300 pips, so it's a great time to move the stop to breakeven. This is a wild pair, so I dare not trail it too closely. Even 300 seems a little tight, but I think it should be ok. If not... scratches are a-ok. I can survive any number of those.

Here's where another aspect of discipline comes in. I could take the profit now, which would put my trading back into positive-expectancy status. I won't do it, because my objective is to make money... not to make pretty statistics. Letting winners run is often harder than cutting losses short. This whole deal is just a giant psychological minefield! Tread cautiously...

Current open equity: $143.21
Starting equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 0

On the ugliness of certain numbers

This last closed trade has taken my results to a negative historical expectancy. I do not have any reason to believe this will be a permanent condition. I also had no reason to believe my expectancy would remain at 0.63% per trade a few weeks ago. I do expect the results to converge on some number and become more stable as more trades are put into the sample. I haven't changed my approach between the end of November and now... the markets have simply been choppier, making breakout trading an unprofitable endeavor. When this rather spectacular drawdown will end is anybody's guess, but I am confident it will end eventually and I will trade back to new equity highs. Anyone who doubts that is welcome to fade me... fading me has certainly been a profitable strategy this week!

Current open equity: $107.95
Starting equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Trade on!

I'm somewhat surprised it didn't happen during the PPI release... but then nothing should surprise me in these markets!


Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Repositioning

Consolidation has continued for a couple of hours, and this has allowed for a smaller pip risk. Here's the new order:

Pending order (2): Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Initial stop: 134.39
Initial exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New idea

Since the inside bar on USD/JPY didn't break to the downside, I've scratched that order and come up with another bad idea... long GBP/JPY. That's the first shot at that pair in this account. It's crazy wild volatile... just like my equity curve.

Pending order (1): Long 1,056 GBP/JPY at 135.42
Initial stop: 134.09
Initial exposure: 133 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea...

An hourly inside bar has formed on USD/JPY, and I'm set up to short the break of it.

Pending order (1): Short 2,000 USD/JPY at 89.24
Initial stop: 89.93
Initial exposure: 69 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

How do you spell frustration?

Right now, it is spelled AUD/USD. This pair was up huge yesterday, and now it... isn't. One of the many dangers of going for the big move. Stopped out at 11:11 pm. Now that I look, I see USD/JPY down big... I wonder what awful thing happened in Asia? Perhaps there is a new idea there...

Previous equity: $121.70
Change: -$18.18
%Change: -14.94%

This most recent loss takes my historical trading results to a negative expectancy... now the $1 million goal is out of reach. I am undeterred.

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Got it!

For better or worse, I got the additional size on at the same price.

Current closed equity: $121.70
Current position: Long 2,282 AUD/USD at 0.6648
Current exposure: 80 pips, $18.26 or 15.00%

Still another on the loss pile

Got stopped in around 2:30 am, and stopped right back out around 3:30. The next loss could take me down to 'negative expectancy'. Not that I believe my trading really has negative expectancy over the long haul, but it will make some of my calculations blow up until I book a few winners.

Previous equity: $143.16
Change: -$21.46
% Change: -14.99%

Not being one to take it lying down, I went ahead and took another shot at the long side of Oz and it got triggered before I could log it. On this one, I may just move the stop to breakeven if I get the amount I risked in profits, so for now there is no pending order to sell 1/2 the position. In my haste to get the orders in, I made a miscalculation and took slightly too small a position. If I get the chance, I'll put on the rest so this trade can be the same as all the others.

Entry: 0.6648
Initial stop: 0.6568
Initial exposure: 80 pips, $14.61 or 12.00%
Pending order: Long 456 AUD/USD at 0.6648 (to make the size the full 15%)

Current closed equity: $121.70
Current position: Long 1,826 AUD/USD at 0.6648
Current exposure: 80 pips, $14.61 or 12.00%

Next idea...

Trying for long Oz again.

Pending order (1): Long 3,408 AUD/USD at 0.6641
Pending order (2): Short 1,704 AUD/USD at 0.6704
Initial stop: 0.6578
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $21.47 or 15.00%

Incidentally, the current equity level represents a 70% drawdown from the highest point I've seen in this account ($467). That's the price of going for really big returns, and it may not be over yet. How long until a new equity high is anybody's guess. On the bright side, I'm still up 28.68% in the account since inception, and up 679.74% from the all time lows at $18.36.

Current closed equity: $143.16
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the loss pile

Stopped out.

Previous equity: $168.51
Change: -$25.35
% Change: -15.04%

Current closed equity: $143.16
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Too fast too log again...

Set up to short GBP, and the order triggered before I could log it! Just a break of a 4-hr inside bar.

Pending order (2): Long 1,620 GBP/USD at 1.4685
Stop on 1st leg: 1.4841

Current closed equity: $168.51
Current position: Short 3,240 GBP/USD from 1.4763
Current exposure: 78 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Knocked off yet again

It's a business of never-ending frustration. Oz fell back and took out the stop.


Current closed equity: $168.51
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Additional stats...

Risk free!

It actually happened while I was typing the last post. Will there be a place to stack on another long? Time will tell...

Current open equity: $193.40
Starting equity: $168.48
Current position: Long 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Current exposure: 0

Trade on...

Trade was triggered about 20 minutes ago. It definitely started producing gains right away, and has nearly made it to the risk-free point. That's how I like to see them, but anything can happen in these markets!


Pending order (2): Short 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6631


Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: Long 7,896 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Current exposure: 32 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Repositioning

Since Oz has wound itself into a tight little range, I can lower the risk in pips and raise the size for the same dollar risk. Of course, it is also easier to get stopped out, but life is a series of tradeoffs...

Pending order (1): Long 7,896 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Pending order (2): Short 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6631
Initial Stop: 0.6567
Initial Exposure: 32 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea...

Long AUD/USD.

Pending order (1): Long 3,462 AUD/USD at 0.6646
Pending order (2): Short 1,731 AUD/USD at 0.6719
Initial Stop: 0.6573
Initial Exposure: 73 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Knocked out again...

Stopped out. Not much to say or do but log it and move on... A new idea will likely present itself in the morning.

Previous equity: $198.00
Change: -$29.52
% Change: -14.91%


Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Additional stats...

Trade triggered

EUR/JPY decided to get up and go someplace... sure looked like it was going to sit below its open all day. Trade not winning any prizes so far...


Pending order(2): Short 1,837 EUR/JPY at 120.24


Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: Long 3,674 EUR/JPY at 119.50
Current exposure: 74 pips, $29.70 or 15.00%

And the idea is...

...if EUR/JPY gets back above last hour's high, I am a buyer with a stop at this hour's low.

Pending order(1): Long 3,674 EUR/JPY at 119.50
Pending order(2): Short 1,837 EUR/JPY at 120.24
Initial stop: 118.76
Initial exposure: 74 pips, $29.70 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Not the move.

GBP fell back and took out the stop again. I got a couple of pennies for carry, but there's not much point in calculating a return there... we'll just call it a scratch. In search of the next idea...

Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Some additional stats...

Risk free!

Risk free point just hit. Will look for a place to stack on another leg if the opportunity presents itself.

Current open equity: $228.76
Starting equity: $197.98
Current position: Long 1,832 GBP/USD at 1.4862
Current exposure: 0

Stopped in a bit early

It's sometimes not easy to catch the very break of an hourly 'inside bar' since sometimes the bar closes and breaks a few seconds later without retracing. I got in this one a couple minutes early. That ought not matter much over the long haul, but I thought it was worth a mention.

Pending order (2): Short 1,832 GBP/USD at 1.4943
Initial stop: 1.4781

Current closed equity: $197.98
Current position: Long 3,664 GBP/USD at 1.4862
Current exposure: 81 pips, $29.68 or 15.00%

Knocked out on the rest.

Bummer. GBP fell back and took out the stop on the main position. Well... it could have been the 5th loss in a row, and a small win is better than that.

Previous equity: $184.06
Change: +$13.92
% Change: +7.56%

Current closed equity: $197.98
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Failed stack attempt

I just tried stacking on another long leg at the topside break of this hour's inside bar. The result was a quick stop-out. I'm leaving the stop on the main position where it is, so I still have a win locked in. I only risked 1/2 the locked in profit on the stack.

Entry: 1.4894
Exit: 1.4836
-58 pips on 2,378 units of GBP/USD


Current open equity: $202.59
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: Locked in +$13.80 or 7.5% of starting equity

Nice start to the week!

GBP has launched through the 1.50 level, taking this trade as high as +350 pips. It has since backed off, but that is to be expected. Moving the stop to lock in 100.

Current open equity: $242.32
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: Locked in +100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00% of starting equity

Not a loss...

GBP has managed to stay above my stop and move higher as well. I've moved the stop to the entry, since I have as much as open profit as I originally risked.

Current open equity: $224.14
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: 0

Here we go again...

...we shall see whether it's 5 in a row, or whether I get a break this time 'round. Doesn't matter of course... not in the long run anyway. (Oh, and bite me, Keynes and Keynesians while I'm thinking about the long run!)



Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: 100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00%

Trying an additional visual...

I want to find someplace on the page to put this... I may have to change templates to make it work.

Next idea....

Well, NFP is out, and the pairs are flailing about. I can't imagine the number was pretty. GBP has broken down, however, if the high of this hour gets taken out, it could signal a reversal and blow up the shorts who have been having a great time in this pair all week...

Pending order (1): Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Initial stop: 1.4595
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whack-ola!

That makes for the 4th loss in a row. Not the least bit unusual... but according to Van Tharp, most people tend to only be able to tolerate 3 losses in a row. Well... I am not most people. I've already proven that I can take 13 losses in a row and still take the next trade, so let's go! (I don't have a new idea yet, and NFP is 10 minutes away... something will come to me though. It always does eventually.)

Previous equity: $216.22
Change: -$32.16
% Change: -14.87%

Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

On the move...

... just like BP. Well, maybe we'll get lucky and do better than BP, which is at 5 year lows! Anyway, the trade is triggered and has broken nicely in my favor right from the get-go. A good sign, but a 4th consecutive loss is by no means out of the question. If I've drawn another black marble out of the bag, those are the breaks and I can do nothing but thake the next trade, and the next, and the next...



Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: Long 3,244 AUD/USD at 0.6490
Current exposure: 100 pips, $32.44 or 15.00%

Glutton for punishment

Looks like I may get another shot at long the Aussie. Yeah, it didn't turn out so great last time, but I have no memory when I make a trade, just like a flipped coin.

Pending order (1): Long 3,244 AUD/USD at 0.6490
Initial stop: 0.6390
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $32.44 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

If it didn't feel like torture...

...we'd all be millionaires. I guess it's just my day to see if I'll break. I won't. Next trade is full size, just like the last one, and every one I ever take. I don't know if there is another idea just yet, since it is late and spreads have widened. We'll see.

Previous equity: $254.46
Change: -$38.24
% Change: 15.03%


Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Happened so fast...

... that I couldn't log the setup before the trade was on! The idea was to short the EUR/USD at the low of a prior inside bar. I gave it a few pips extra to run also, since 60 seemed about the minimum distance I wanted to trail. Now I'm in and the pending order is thus:

Pending order (2): Long 3,181 EUR/USD at 1.2596
Initial stop: 1.2716
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $38.17 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $254.46
Current position: Short 6,362 EUR/USD at 1.2656
Current exposure: 60 pips, $38.17 or 15.00%

Just $5,799,955.15 to go!

That trade got taken out pretty fast... that's how this game goes. Not sure where the next setup is, but I'm sure I'll think of something.

Previous equity: $299.31
Change: -$44.85
% Change: -14.98%

Current closed equity: $254.46
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Here we go already!

Trade just triggered. Let the losses begin!


Pending order (2): Short 3,401 AUD/USD at 0.6549


Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: Long 6,802 AUD/USD at 0.6483
Current exposure: 66 pips, $44.89 or 15.00%

No rest...

New plan: Long Aussie. One of the chief reasons is because I feel like we should be going down... so we'll probably go the other way!

Pending order (1): Long 6,802 AUD/USD at 0.6483
Pending order (2): Short 3,401 AUD/USD at 0.6549
Initial stop: 0.6417
Initial exposure: 66 pips, $44.89 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the scratch pile

Well, I tried it and it failed. We'll see what the next setup brings. I don't know if I'll fade this pair again, or what. Time will reveal...

Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free, but differently...

I decided to pull the pending order and move the stop down to the entry on this order. That will give me a bigger win if this baby really breaks down, as I think it might. The trade had been chopping around and basically avoided triggering the pending order for so long that I started to wonder if it would ever happen! Now we've fallen through that price, and I think there should be enough momentum to keep it from retracing back to the entry, but who knows... it's not any more risk in dollars, so let's go for it, shall we?



Current open equity: $344.99
Starting equity: $299.55
Current position: Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

Just stopped into the trade. Looked good for a few minutes... not so hot just now, but it doesn't really matter when you need to take 1000 losses or more along the way.



Pending order (2): Long 3,800 USD/JPY at 92.63


Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Current exposure: 55 pips, $44.93 or 15.00%

Next idea....

If the USD/JPY falls beneath today's open, I'm a seller.

Pending order (1): Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Pending order (2): Long 3,800 USD/JPY at 92.63
Initial stop: 93.73
Initial exposure: 55 pips, $44.93 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Finally!

The market finally let me out of that shitty trade! One down, 1300 or so to go. Not sure what the next setup is yet.


Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free.

Yow! That was one uuuuugly trade. Could have been worse, and honestly I don't expect much more from it. Hey, at least it was not a loss. If something good happens, I'll look into adding to the position.

Current open equity: $334.04
Starting equity: $299.85
Current position: Short 2,975 EUR/JPY at 118.24
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

I'm in.


Pending order (2): Long 2,975 EUR/JPY at 117.53

Current closed equity: $299.85
Current position: Short 5,950 EUR/JPY at 118.24
Current exposure: 71 pips, $44.98 or 15.00%

Getting whacked is part of the game

It's a painful part of the game, but it is also the source of all profits... so it's hard to get too worked up about it. Stop hit.

Previous equity: $352.64
Change: -$52.79
% Change: -14.97%

And now, let's set it up again. This time, I'll short the break of the inside hourly bar on EUR/JPY.

Pending order (1): Short 5,950 EUR/JPY at 118.24
Pending order (2): Long 2,975 EUR/JPY at 117.53
Initial stop: 118.95
Initial exposure: 71 pips, $44.98 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $299.85
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Order hit

We're in! Now the nail-biting begins! Pretty exciting to risk $50 on the next 34 ticks, eh? Just wait until it's $500 or $5,000!

Pending order (2): Long 7,300 USD/JPY at 93.43


Current closed equity: $352.64
Current position: Short 14,600 USD/JPY at 93.77
Current exposure: 34 pips, $52.70 or 15.00%

Today's plan

USD/JPY has broken down pretty hard, and is now consolidating. It has formed an inside bar, the break of which I'll be shorting.

Pending order (1): Short 14,600 USD/JPY at 93.77
Pending order (2): Long 7,300 USD/JPY at 93.43
Initial stop: 94.11
Initial exposure: 34 pips, $52.70 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $352.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Unsatisfying exits...

They are par for the course. The pair collapsed in a quivering heap overnight and stopped me out way down from the lofty heights it had seen only Friday. Bummer. Nothing to do but log it and look for the next opportunity to take a loss.

Previous equity: $290.49
Change: +$62.15
% Change: +21.39%

Current closed equity: $352.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Locking still more

After today's action having traced out an 'inside day', the low of the day gives me a good place to move my stop. I definitely want to avoid trailing too closely, and I'm leaving a few pips for holiday-widened spreads; however, a break of a low of an inside day is likely to lead to further weakness, so that's where I'll stop out.

Current open equity: $392.10
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $61.01 or 21.00% of starting equity.

More locked.

We've just gone charging through yesterday's high after having retraced almost to the stop overnight. This is a good place to go ahead and move the stop up to the point that locks in a profit that is the same size as the original risk... 1R as Van Tharp calls it. If we get a consolidation pattern around these levels, it will be a good place to try stacking on an additional long. We shall see...

Current open equity: $422.97
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $43.58 or 15.00% of starting equity.

Lock time.

Now that the trade has been up by nearly 3 times the amount of pips originally at risk, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry point.

Current open equity: $364.50
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $21.79 or 7.5% of starting equity.

Risk free in 90 minutes

Nice way to start off the trading week. Let's see how long this one lasts.

Current open equity: $337.82
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Here we go...


Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376


Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%

DIBS on Oz

Simple inside bar setup on Aussie.

Pending order (1): Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Initial stop: 0.6262
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out in Sunday Slop

Friday's action was just dandy up until the last couple of hours. Those are the breaks. Call it the Geithner rally. Of course all that news really means to me is that I know I'll be saying 'That worthless SOB Geithner' for the next couple of years.

Previous equity: $269.56
Change: +$20.93
%Change: +7.76%


Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whoa!

The Pound has broken down very nicely in the last few minutes. Now that I'm up 2x the amount of pips I risked, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry. No sense in letting this big of a winner turn into a scratch.

Current open equity: $350.50
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: Locked in +$21.65 or +7.5% of Starting equity

Quite the nail-biter!

I generally prefer not to short pairs that are up significantly on the day, but sometimes it works out. Again, entries are not all that important anyway. This trade was very nearly stopped out at about 8:30 this morning, but it has now reached the risk-free point. You just never know what color marble you'll be drawing from the bag. At least I'm sure that this one isn't a loser.

Current open equity: $318.96
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 0

New new plan in effect

Here we go!


Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885


Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

New new plan

Scratch the Aussie idea. GBP has drawn a 'pin bar' pattern on the hourly chart, and I'm playing that instead.

Pending order (1): Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Initial stop: 1.5067
Initial exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New plan

Trying a long play in Aussie. Not really a DIBS play, but close enough... entries aren't really that important.

Pending order (1): Long 7,486 AUD/USD at 0.6283
Pending order (2): Short 3,743 AUD/USD at 0.6337
Initial stop: 0.6229
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratch that idea

USD/JPY is moving higher, and while a reversal is certainly possible, there is probably some other kind of trouble out there to get into. Canceled pending orders.

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea....

If USD/JPY takes out this hour's low, I'm selling it.

Pending order (1): Short 8,086 USD/JPY at 94.68
Pending order (2): Long 4,043 USD/JPY at 94.18
Initial stop: 95.18
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

I knew it would happen

At least, I had a pretty good idea. If I *knew* I would have closed the trade before it got stopped out for another breakeven. Next setup...

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Umph..

Well, they sure made me sweat for it, with price diddling about within 2 or 3 pips of my trigger price for about 25 minutes... but I am finally risk-free in this trade.

Current open equity: $314.53
Starting equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 0

I'm in.

Not looking so great so far, but hey... what do I know?


Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741


Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Reposition again

A NEW, new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.

Pending order (1): Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Initial stop: 1.4839
Initial exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Reposition

A new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.

Pending order (1): Short 6,322 GBP/USD at 1.4778
Pending order (2): Long 3,161 GBP/USD at 1.4714
Initial stop: 1.4842
Initial exposure: 64 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea

DIBS on GBP is my best idea for now. I really don't like shorting AUD because the carry is still too high, and that was my other potential idea.

Pending order (1): Short 7,356 GBP/USD at 1.4749
Pending order (2): Long 3,678 GBP/USD at 1.4694
Initial stop: 1.4804
Initial exposure: 55pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Oh well.

It's just one frustrating kick to the groin after another, isn't it? Stopped out. Taking these whacks is what I get paid to do, no matter how awful it feels. The next setup awaits...

Previous equity: $222.32
Change: +$47.46
%Change: +21.35%


Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved again

Locking in some more with a stop just above the recent hourly highs.

Current open equity: $339.07
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$46.36 or +20.85%

Stop moved

Wow, this baby has really started to break down in earnest. I'm up over 140 pips so far.

Current open equity: $301.92
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$33.35 or +15.00%

Risk free and some locked in

With equities having broken down and closed at a new low, this trade seems to be working pretty well. It has been up by 95 pips, but I've moved my stop just down to the entry point. I want to try and avoid killing the trade by trailing too closely.

Current open equity: $275.55
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$17.32 or +7.79%

Too fast to log it!

DIBS setup on JPY taken.

Pending order (2): Long 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.24


Current closed equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 8,550 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: 39 pips, $33.35 or 15.00%

This one got a little complicated

This pair broke way higher, and has since reversed hard... thinking about shorting it now, but that's another post. When the pair hit the pending order, apparently the spread was so high that OANDA canceled the order. This has happened before. Sometimes errors like this inure to my benefit, and this was one of those times. I'll take it, but I'd rather have perfect execution on my part than have luck occasionally drop a few pips in my pocket. Since I closed 1/2 the position at 1.2740 instead of the planned 1.2713, this setup resulted in a win instead of a breakeven.

Previous equity: $215.23
Change: +$7.09
% Change: +3.29%

Current closed equity: $222.32
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ok, I'm in

On the long side. Not winning any beauty contests so far, but I'll give it some time.



Pending order (2): Short 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2713




Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: Long 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2651
Current exposure: 62 pips, $32.28 or 15.00%

Hello old friend

I haven't taken a setup in EUR/USD for a long time. Here's the plan:

Pending order (1): Long 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2651
Pending order (2): Short 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2713
Pending order (3): Short 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2589
Pending order (4): Long 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2527
If order 1 is triggered, cancel 3 & 4.
If order 3 is triggered, cancel 1 & 2.
Initial stop: (1) 1.2589 (3) 1.2651
Initial exposure: 62 pips, $32.28 or 15.00%


Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped in at 5:06

Stopped out at 5:14! I guess that wasn't such a great idea after all... The next move may be a long, but I don't know until I get a look around.

Previous equity: $239.09
Change: -$23.86
% Change: -9.98%

Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea....

GBP has presented a very low-risk entry point by winding itself into a tight range overnight.... perhaps the tightest we've seen in weeks. Here's the plan:

Pending order (1): Short 7,950 GBP/USD at 1.4936
Pending order (2): Long 3,975 GBP/USD at 1.4906
Initial stop: 1.4966
Initial exposure: 30 pips, $23.85 or 9.98%

I would have risked the usual 15%, but my broker doesn't offer enough leverage for me to do that! The nice thing is that we should know very quickly if this works...

Current closed equity: $239.09
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Nailed yet again

Just got stopped out of this ill-fated long. Not sure what the next move is. This has been a deadly boring little while with everything chopping around in ranges the last few days.

Previous equity: $281.18
Change: -$42.09
% Change: -14.97%

Current closed equity: $239.09
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on at 2:34 am

I got stopped in, and after a nice move higher, the pair reversed and made for my stop. It has recently turned yet again and is sitting near breakeven at a small loss.


Pending order (2): Short 2,027 GBP/USD at 1.5140


Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: Long 4,054 GBP/USD at 1.5036
Current exposure: 104 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Long GBP this time?

This is the best I can come up with for now.

Pending order (1): Long 4,054 GBP/USD at 1.5036
Pending order (2): Short 2,027 GBP/USD at 1.5140
Initial stop: 1.4932
Initial exposure: 104 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Just can't hold this turd!

Stopped out again... at least for breakeven plus a few pennies for carry. I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free, Baby!

Risk-free point just hit about 10 minutes ago. Will it be a trade I can hold for awhile? Who knows... it's not a bad start though. Maybe there will be some stacking too...

Current open equity: $317.84
Starting equity: $281.05
Current position: Long 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Current exposure: 0

Execution phase begins

Trade was triggered about 30 minutes ago. Not winning any prizes so far, but that isn't at all unusual.


Pending order (2): Short 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6582

Current open equity: $254.97
Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: Long 7,954 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Current exposure: 53 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Next plan

Oz looks like it may be pulling back in the context of an uptrend. If it clears this hour's high, I'm a buyer.

Pending order (1): Long 7,954 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Pending order (2): Short 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6582
Initial stop: 0.6476
Initial exposure: 53 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratch orders

GBP is breaking higher, and I don't want to wait for it to possibly reverse. Looking to set up for a long in Aussie instead.

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Pile on the pound again

Looking to get short the GBP if it breaks its low of the last few hours.

Pending order(1): Short 2,990 GBP/USD at 1.4648
Pending order(2): Long 1,495 GBP/USD at 1.4507
Initial stop: 1.4789
Initial exposure: 141 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

We won't get to find out.

In one of the many frustrating twists and turns of this business, my stop got hit in this no-liquidity after-hours environment. Looks like I even paid a few pennies of slippage, since the spread was >15 pips. Nothing to do now but log it and move on. Bummer, since I was into the 3:00 hour with 85 pips in profit. At least this sudden weakness is increasing the profits in some of my other accounts.

Previous equity: $281.61
Change: -$0.56
% Change: -0.2%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Weekend, yea!

Well, here we are in the final few minutes before liquidity seriously dries up until Asia opens on Sunday night. Here I am again holding a long position in the Aussie late on a Friday. Last time around, I didn't have a risk-free trade like I do now. I also didn't have a nice cushion of open profit. Anything can happen, but I feel much more comfortable holding this week than I did last. I gave up some profit potential by selling last week... let's see if my decision this week has a better result.

Current open equity: $320.42
Starting equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 0

Risk free trade achieved

The risk-free point was hit just before 10am. If we see some higher prices, this may be a good trade to hold over the weekend. We'll see.

Current open equity: $316.43
Starting equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

For better or worse, I just got stopped in.


Pending order (2): Short 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6633


Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 6,704 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 63 pips, $42.24 or 15.00%

Here's my best idea

Not that it's a great idea or anything, but it's what I can come up with for now. This is a simple long breakout play based on the range of the last 3 hours. Back down under:

Pending order (1): Long 6,704 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Pending order (2): Short 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6633
Initial stop: 0.6505
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $42.24 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the loss column

Stopped in around 1:33am, stopped out around 3am. Looking for the next setup as always.

Previous equity: $333.20
Change: -$51.59
% Change: -15.48%


Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

May be a nail-biter

USD/JPY has wound itself into a pretty tight range overnight. I'm playing for a breakout higher, and I only need 40 pips to know if I'm wrong, so this position is pretty big.

Pending order(1): Long 12,494 USD/JPY at 97.29
Pending order(2): Short 6,247 USD/JPY at 97.69
Initial stop: 96.89
Initial exposure: 40 pips, $49.98 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $333.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Rats!

After having been up by over 130 pips, the stop got hit. This pair is just too volatile right now with the super important levels in equities right here. I should probably just leave it alone until things calm back down, since going long is foolish and going short is just too difficult.

Current closed equity: $333.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Short again

I just went short at 122.998, and the stop is already at breakeven. I fully expect to get taken out of this trade, but who knows...

Current closed equity: $333.21
Current position: Short 2,300 EUR/JPY at 122.998
Current exposure: 0

Whack!

While I was out gallivanting, I got stopped into and then right back out of the planned short. I'm sure I'll be setting up another one soon, but I have to look around a bit first. We do have at least a new intraday low on the S&P, which bodes well for shorting this pair again.

Previous equity: $392.43
Change: -$59.22
%Change: -15.09%

Current closed equity: $333.21
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

The plan

There is an inside bar last hour to play the downside break. Setting it up in the usual way.

Pending order(1): Short 6,750 EUR/JPY at 119.31
Pending order(2): Long 3,375 EUR/JPY at 118.47
Initial stop: 120.15
Initial exposure: 84 pips, $58.80 or 14.98%


Current closed equity: $392.43
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop hit

I guess the longs need a break from the beating they've been taking. I may just put this leg back on if the pair falls back through a low of a high bar. Or not. Maybe there is a better idea out there.

Previous equity: $296.20
Change: +$96.23
% Change: +32.49%

Current closed equity: $392.43
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Moved stop yet again

The trade is up by over 600 pips. 300 seems like a reasonable trail, considering how high volatility has gotten again.


Current open equity: $467.06 (a record!)
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $73.60 or 24.85% of starting equity

Moved stop again

EUR/JPY has broken through yesterday's low, and this trade is now up over 300 pips. Moved stop to lock in the full 100 pips at least.

Current open equity: $395.02
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $44.42 or 15.00% of starting equity

Moved stop

EUR/JPY has broken down nicely again this hour. Moved the stop to the entry point, thereby locking in at least 1/2 the amount risked on the trade.

Current open equity: $379.75
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $22.21 or 7.5% of starting equity

Risk free!

The risk-free point was just hit about 6 minutes ago. Looking for a stackable place as always.

Current closed equity: $341.15
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: 0

Yow!

While I was making some toast and otherwise not looking at the markets, this trade got triggered and has nearly hit the risk-free point already!

Pending order(2): Long 2,221 EUR/JPY at 123.11

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 4,442 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: 100 pips, $44.42 or 15.00%

I like this better

EUR/JPY has drawn out a pennant over the last 14 hours or so. It could be argued that it already broke to the downside once and has since moved back into the consolidation range... but it doesn't matter that much to me, since exits are far more important than entries. Here are the orders:

Pending order(1): Short 4,442 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Pending order(2): Long 2,221 EUR/JPY at 123.11
Initial stop: 125.11
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $44.42 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scrub mission

I've canceled the pending orders. I just don't like what I see, and I think there are more attractive opportunities in other markets.

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Repositioning

Based on the action on the 4hr chart, I'm dropping the prices in all orders by 52 pips. The risk is the same, but the low of the low bar is now lower.

Pending order(1): Long 5770 AUD/USD at 0.6708
Pending order(2): Short 2885 AUD/USD at 0.6785
Initial stop: 0.6631
Initial exposure: 77 pips, $44.43 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Having yet another go

Oz seems to have stopped falling for now. Going long if it breaches the highs of a couple hours ago. The logical stop-out point is a bit farther away this time, so the position size is smaller.

Pending order(1): Long 5770 AUD/USD at 0.6760
Pending order(2): Short 2885 AUD/USD at 0.6837
Initial stop: 0.6683
Initial exposure: 77 pips, $44.43 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And over quickly it was.

Probably done for the day, but looking for another opportunity if it should come along... not necessarily in this pair, but not ruling it out either.

Previous equity: $348.40
Change: -$52.21
% Change: -14.99%

Current closed equity: $296.19
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going again

Price dropped right into the bottom of the week's opening gap, which should provide a support level. If not, it should be over quick.

Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6785

Pending order(2): Short 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6827
Initial stop: 0.6743


Current closed equity: $348.40
Current position: Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6785
Current exposure: 42 pips, $52.22 or 15.00%

Blast!

Stop hit. At least I kept a few pennies for positive carry. Looking for the next trade is the only cure for this pain.

Current closed equity: $348.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

In and looking good

The trade was triggered around 2:30 am. After a brief flirtation with disaster, coming within 15 pips of the stop, the Aussie has climbed very nicely. The risk-free point was hit around 5:15 am, and now I'm looking for good places to stack on additional longs.


Current open equity: $415.56 (That's a new record!)
Starting equity: $348.19
Current position: Long 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6876
Current exposure: 0

Wake up time...

Turns out, leaving the trade on would have worked out ok. No matter... I had no way of knowing that going in. The decision was the correct one to make over time even if not in this particular instance.
Oz is looking up, and last hour formed an inside bar, so I'm playing the DIBS setup. (Appropriate stop on order 2, since I am going back to bed after hitting the 'Publish' button.)

Pending order(1): Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6876
Pending order(2): Short 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6918
Initial stop: 0.6834
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $52.22 or 15.00%

Yes, that's my biggest position yet in this account... more than 1 mini-lot, and each tick worth over $1.24. Exciting? Nah... it's just a bigger number.

Current closed equity: $348.19
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ritholtz asks... I respond.

Barry's question cast out into the aether from his fantastic blog, The Big Picture:

Open Thread: What Now?

'Ok, we have the Presidential election behind us, and ugly NFP yesterday... Market volatility still remains crazed... What is on your minds? What are you thinking about? What say ye?'

My response: (reproduced here)

Interesting question. The answer is that it’s the same set of things that have been on my mind for the past several years. Mostly, I wonder how so many people believe so many contradictory stupidities and manage to avoid killing themselves while making a bowl of Froot Loops in the morning. On the one hand, the irrationality of my fellow humans is why I trade the markets, so I have mixed feelings about a sudden mass outbreak of Reason… but then again, if man were rational in all aspects of his life, I think humans would have colonized a good deal of the Galaxy several centuries and probably millennia ago. Nevertheless, I am not the least bit hopeful (worried?) that man’s nature will change for the better in the next few years. (Ray Kurzweil thinks 2029 may be a big year in that department. I’m skeptical, but intrigued and watchful.)
I don’t know much, and the things I do know are things that most people would rather not believe. Worse, they seem willing to bear any hardship and/or inflict any misery upon others in order to avoid believing them. Chief among these unpopular beliefs, and the main one from which they all proceed is handed down from a guy much smarter than me:

One cannot say of something that it is and that it is not in the same respect and at the same time.
-Aristotle

One who truly believes this is in for no end of trouble with his fellows. It means being at irreconcilable odds with just about everyone at one time or another. Consider the sum of two and two. It is always exactly four, and most people seem to agree… until it’s time to talk about bailouts, taxes, ’spreading the wealth’, etc. Consider the slave. A person who is forced against his will to work for another is a slave, regardless of the self-serving pronouncements of some black-robed buffoon. That will be a very popular sentiment on the floor of the NYSE at 11 o’clock this Tuesday, let me tell you.

So in the coming years, I expect to continue to be endlessly fascinated and frustrated by the behavior of individuals alone and in groups. I expect to have more proof that all governments are simply large gangs of liars, thieves, and killers with legions of apologists. (Stop at any time, as I need no further proof, thank you.) I expect to see more people getting what they deserve, along with other people getting what they do not deserve, in spite of what anyone feels or thinks about either. I expect to see low prices get lower, and high prices get higher…until they don’t. In short, I expect more of the same, but perhaps from different angles, because while the landscape may look different, it is still populated by the same terrible, wonderful flawed beings. The more things Change…

Be careful out there.

Closed trade

This trade was not pretty. It was nearly stopped out several times. Somewhat of a bummer, since it started out so well. It did hit a high for the day last hour, but that faded in a few minutes. That's just the nature of this game, and a big part of the reason it's one of the hardest but most rewarding games a person can play. (See: Endowment effect)
I'd rather just take the scratch and wait until the weekend is over, since spreads will widen to at least 10 and probably 20 pips. That wouldn't leave much room for the typical Sunday slop, making the chances of getting stopped out just too high to justify staying in this trade. There will be better opportunities to lose some money on Monday. In light of these considerations, I've hit the sell button and canceled the pending order.

Previous equity: $346.37
Change: +$1.81
% Change: +0.52%

Current closed equity: $348.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Plan in effect!

Oz has broken higher, and got within 20 pips of hitting the risk-free point before pulling back a bit. This is the action we like to see... the decisively profit-producing kind.

Pending order(2): Short 4558 AUD/USD at 0.6794

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: Long 9116 AUD/USD at 0.6737
Current exposure: 57 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Plan C...

...just like Plans A & B but with new packaging.

Pending order(1): Long 9116 AUD/USD at 0.6737
Pending order(2): Short 4558 AUD/USD at 0.6794
Initial stop: 0.6680
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

This is my largest position size yet... just shy of a full mini-lot. Let's see what it feels like with every tick worth 91 cents!

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Bah!

I canceled those orders too... seems like there just aren't any great ideas to play right now. We'll see what develops when Euroland wakes up. Tomorrow is NFP day, so there should be no shortage of action.


Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Maybe this instead....

I've canceled the pending JPY orders in favor of going for a long in EUR/JPY. Yes... totally different direction, but I like the look of this idea better. We will see which was the dumb idea... or perhaps they are equally bad.

Pending order (1): Long 5196 EUR/JPY at 125.03
Pending order (2): Short 2598 EUR/JPY at 126.03
Initial stop: 124.03
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ok, here's the plan...

If USD/JPY takes out today's low, I'm shorting it. The break, if there is one should be decisive, and if not, I'll get out... perhaps before I get stopped out. Regardless, the stop is relatively tight.

Pending order(1): Short 6,662 USD/JPY at 97.48
Pending order(2): Long 3,331 USD/JPY at 96.70
Initial stop: 98.26
Initial exposure: 78 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whacked again!

Stopped out at 11:11am. Everyone's got the risk-aversion fever again today it seems. Not sure what the next move is, but I'm glad I moved up that stop.

Previous equity: $314.54
Change: +$31.83
%Change: +10.12%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop move

Moved the stop up to 0.6770, since if this hour's low (0.6789) is taken out, it's a pretty bearish signal. In fact, if that does happen, a short is a pretty good idea.

Current open equity: $359.27
Starting equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: Locked in +$31.74 or +10.09% of starting equity

Worked out allright

The pair popped nicely through the risk-free point, I'm assuming because of whatever the BOE had to say, although I haven't checked the news. If I see an opportune time to put a stack on, I'll do it, of course.

Current open equity: $384.76
Starting equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: 0

Ok, THAT'S never happened before!

My buy order got hit at 2:03 am. Then at 3:31 am, when the price had gained the 67 pips needed for a risk-free trade, OANDA canceled the sell order! I have now figured out why. When I set those orders to close 1/2 the position, I always set them with a stop-loss since OANDA doesn't have order-cancel-order functionality. This way I don't need to worry about getting stopped out of the main position and then getting the other order hit during wild swings. This time, however I put the stop too close to the sell price, and OANDA's system canceled the order. I shall need to be more careful placing that stop next time, making sure that it isn't inside the spread.
Now I'm in long, and profitable, but price has fallen back from where the order in question was. I've gone ahead and placed it again.

Pending order(3): Short 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6814


Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 7042 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: 67 pips, $47.18 or 15.00%

Yet another shot

The Oz has stopped dropping for now, and appears to be sitting at the bottom of a rising channel. This is a good place to put on a long if it can get above the highs of the last few hourly bars. If it breaks the recent lows, the idea will be proven wrong, so that's where the stop-out will occur.

Pending order(1): Long 7042 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Pending order(2): Short 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6814
Initial stop: 0.6680
Initial exposure: 67 pips, $47.18 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Knocked right outta there!

Stopped out in not too long at all. This is how it should be... it's great when bad ideas get proven so as quickly as possible. I guess we'll have to wait a bit before we see higher prices in this pair. Other opportunities will likely appear someplace else before that time, but I'll be watching.

Previous equity: $302.87
Change: +$11.67
% Change: +3.85%
Yes... I was up by almost 33% at one point, but nearly 4% in two days is not too bad. I never said the swings would be pretty or easy to handle. (I can't wait to see what happens when $4,000 turns into $3,000 in a day!)

Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying again

I went ahead and got long as the AUD broke lower towards what should be decent support. I'm only risking 50 pips with the same size as the stack that got knocked off.

Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6861
Initial stop: 0.6811
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $11.36 or 3.75% of starting equity


Current open equity: $332.31
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68685 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $11.35 or 3.75% of starting equity

Stack knocked down

Around 9 pm yesterday evening, the Aussie retraced some of its admittedly huge rally and hit the first price where I flatten 1/2 the position. The second point was nearly hit as well, but the pair has since recovered so I'm holding on. If I see some more bullish price action, I may attempt to press this trade again.

Current open equity: $354.16
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6876 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity

Stack success!

While I was out taking care of some errands, the Oz went ahead and broke higher, achieving risk-free status on the second leg in just over an hour. Nice!

I've needed to remove the stop-losses since OANDA consolidated both legs into the same position. I've placed orders to flatten 1/2 the position at the breakeven on the 2nd leg (0.6885) and the original entry point on the 1st leg (0.68136). This will lock in 1/2 the risk on the 1st leg as a gain. ($22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity)

Current open equity: $393.93
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.6876 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity

Stack 'er up...

Attempting to stack on another long leg at the break of the inside bar that formed last hour. Taking the same sized trade with a bit more than 1/2 the pip risk.

Pending order (3): Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.6939
Pending order (4): Short 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6993
Initial stop: 0.6885
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $24.53 or 8.10% of starting equity

Current open equity: $346.28
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 0

Ka-BOOM!

Nice! Again, I love it when the trade achieves risk-free status in less than an hour. And this time, I'm on the right side of the carry, so hopefully I can stay on this one awhile. I'll be looking for an appropriate place to stack, of course.

Current open equity: $350.23
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 0

Long down under now

Oz is looking like it may go higher after having consolidated for a few days.

Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Pending order (2): Short 2271 AUD/USD at 0.69136
Initial stop: 0.67136
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $45.42 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 100 pips, $45.42 or 15.00%

Trades closed for blowing chunks

The stack trade was just awful after the first 10 minutes or so. It was nearly stopped out several times. I'm not really bearish on this pair at these levels, and the price action wasn't making the bear case look any more attractive. I decided to close out both legs (at 1.5835) and look for greener pastures. Not that I should be complaining about 300 pip wins in a few hours, and perhaps this will prove to be a boneheaded move... but what's done is now done. And this is a new closing equity high, so I've got that going for me... which is nice.

Previous equity: $238.44
Change: +$64.43
% Change: +27.02%

Current closed equity: $302.87
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stack on!

Trade triggered about 5 minutes ago...

Pending order (4): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.5752


Current open equity: $327.64
Current position: Short 5364 GBP/USD at 1.5922 (avg)
Current exposure: 50 pips, $17.88 or 7.50% of starting equity ($238.44)

Pressing the trade

The past couple of hours have drawn a consolidation pattern offering a low-risk entry point for another short. I'm risking 1/2 the amount of pips on the same size as last trade.

Pending order (3): Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.5802
Pending order (4): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.5752

Initial stop: 1.5852
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $17.88 or 7.50% of starting equity ($238.44)

Current open equity: $317.49
Current position: Short 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 0

Nice!

I love it when a trade achieves risk-free status in under an hour. Naturally I'll be looking for a place to stack in an additional short once things go into a consolidation.

Current open equity: $285.05
Starting equity: $238.44
Current position: Short 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 0

Here we go...

Trade just triggered. Starting to produce a bit of profit too...


Pending order (2): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6062

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Shifting gears

The Oz seems to be weak today, and I don't want to sit around waiting for it to get up and go someplace. GBP looks weak too, so I'm going to go for a short there if the day's low is taken out.

Pending order (1): Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Pending order (2): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6062

Initial stop: 1.6262
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And...

The next idea is to go long this same pair if Thursday's high is exceeded.

Pending order (1): Long 3576 AUD/USD at 0.6898
Pending order (2): Short 1788 AUD/USD at 0.6998

Initial stop: 0.6798
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out

Trade was stopped out during the Sunday session.


Previous equity: $281.71
Change: -$43.27
% Change: -15.36%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying a short down under

Just opened a short on AUD/USD as this hour's low was taken out at 0.6617.

Pending order (1): Long 2113 AUD/USD at 0.6517


Current closed equity: $281.71
Current position: Short 4226 AUD/USD at 0.6617
Current exposure: 100 pips, $42.26 or 15.00%

New closing equity high!

Sure, I hate getting stopped out over $80 under where my equity had been, but such is the nature of the game. If it was easy to take, we'd all be billionaires. All in all, it was a great trade, and it's time to log it and look for the next setup.

Starting equity: $174.85
Change: +$106.86
% Change:+61.12% (Now that's Change I Can Believe In! (Screw you, Obama and followers!(and McCain too.)))

Current closed equity: $281.71
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Moving the stop up to lock in 500 pips of the 800 this trade has produced so far.

Current open equity: $349.56
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Current exposure: Locked in $121.40 or +69.43% of starting equity

And trade whacked already

Que sera, sera. At least it was over quickly.

Change: -$28.19
% Change: -16.12% of starting equity
To make sure this trading campaign doesn't result in losses, I'm moving the stop up to the new breakeven point at 1.5813. I will look for a new place to put on the next leg.

Current open equity: $228.79
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Current exposure: 0

Order hit already

I'm in!


Pending order(4): Short 1410 GBP/USD at 1.6200


Current open equity: $257.16
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 5248 GBP/USD at 1.5938 (avg)
Current exposure: $15.07 or 8.62% of starting equity

So it happened an hour later

The 7am candle formed an inside bar, so I'm using that one as the setup for the next long in this pair. With the spread, I'm just going to call it an even 100 pips.

Pending order(3): Long 2820 GBP/USD at 1.6100
Pending order(4): Short 1410 GBP/USD at 1.6200
Initial stop: 1.6000
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $28.20 or 15.00% of locked in equity ($187.98)

Current open equity: $263.04
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Current exposure: Locked in +$13.13 or +7.51% of starting equity

Stop moved

I've moved the stop up to the entry point. No sense in letting such a nice winner turn into just a breakeven. If this pair drops by 300 pips from here, it's just not the move I was looking for.
I'm looking to stack on another long here. There is an inside bar forming this hour, so this is probably a good place to do it. I will of course post the moves as they come.

Current open equity: $265.89
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Current exposure: Locked in +$13.13 or +7.51% of starting equity

Gotta love that!

The GBP popped through my buy stop and raced right through the breakeven sell point in about 2 minutes! Can't ask for things to go much better than that. Equities are experiencing a righteous relief rally. Was that the bottom? Was it a bottom? Time will tell.

Current open equity: $190.90
Starting equity: $174.85
Current position: Long 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Current exposure: 0

DIBS on the Pizz-ound!

Looking to get long this pair on the upside breakout of the inside bar just formed. Will go for some stacking as we (hopefully) work higher.

Pending order (1): Long 4856 GBP/USD at 1.5750
Pending order (2): Short 2428 GBP/USD at 1.5804
Initial stop: 1.5696
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $26.23 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $174.85
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Guess I'd rather be waiting

The trade was stopped out overnight as the Asian markets stepped back from their headlong dash to zero. Looking for the next setup, as always.


Previous equity: $207.61
Change: -$32.76
Pip change: -400
% Change: -15.78%

Current closed equity: $174.85
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

The waiting is the hardest part...

This pair has made a marginal new low, but not enough to make me move the stop... I'll need it to get 400 pips in the green before I do that. It's been hovering around breakeven for some hours now while US equities refuse to give up the ghost. Sellers are probably somewhat tired. I can't imagine that the S&P is holding up because there's a great deal of buying at these levels. No matter... the longer this trade persists without getting stopped out, the more likely that it is the right idea. Bad ideas tend to get revealed as such very quickly... especially these days! (Unless, of course, you are a central banker, politician, or other economic moron.)


Current closed equity: $207.40 (negative carry when short this pair!)
Current position: Short 779 EUR/JPY at 116.398
Current exposure: 400 pips, $31.14 or 15.00%

Holy mackerel!

I guess I should have left everything in EUR/USD alone! Well... I did what looked like the right thing at the time. Looking at how far everything has moved and how wild everything is right now, I've decided to go with a very simple idea. I won't be trying to stack any other trades into this one... at least not until volatility becomes more reasonable. I'm naturally using a very wide stop on this idea...

Short 779 EUR/JPY at the market (116.398)
Initial stop: 120.398
Initial exposure: 400 pips, $31.14 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $207.61
Current position: Short 779 EUR/JPY at 116.398
Current exposure: 400 pips, $31.14 or 15.00%

Grrrr!

I should be freaking ecstatic, but I'm pretty disappointed with how this trade turned out. I closed it early because the pair popped over a 2 day high, and I was unwilling to wait to see if it would take back everything. I will probably re-short the pair as it falls back through 1.29, and the pending orders stay for now.

Starting equity: $127.07
Change: +$80.54
% Change: +63.38% (It was well over 100%, hence the lack of excitement. Damned endowment effect!)

Current closed equity: $207.61
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up again...

Trying a closer target this time around.

Pending order(9): Short 2748 EUR/USD at 1.2786
Pending order(10): Long 1374 EUR/USD at 1.2736
Initial stop: 1.2836
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $13.74 or 15.00% (Of starting equity minus losses - $91.61)

Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254 (disaster stop)


Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $232.29
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Zapped again...

Not the break we were looking for again. Will look for a better spot. Maybe this hour's low.


Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254 (disaster stop)


Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $244.39
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Order hit!

We're in, and profits are accruing already... just how we like them!

Short 1902 EUR/USD at 1.2775

Pending order(8): Long 951 EUR/USD at 1.2690



Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254 (disaster stop)

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $300.76
Current position: Short 5670 EUR/USD at 1.3053 (avg.)
Current exposure: 85 pips, $16.17 or 15.00% (of starting equity minus loss on previous trade-$107.81)

Trying again.

Looking to stack in a 3rd short.

Pending order(7): Short 1902 EUR/USD at 1.2775
Pending order(8): Long 951 EUR/USD at 1.2690
Initial stop: 1.2860
Initial exposure: 85 pips, $16.17 or 15.00% (of starting equity minus loss on previous trade-$107.81)

Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254 (disaster stop)

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $273.06
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Looking for a new spot...

Well, that unfortunate but short-lived trade got stopped right out after having started lower in earnest by about 25 pips before a merciless reversal. A new shorting opportunity will surely present itself.

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $242.31
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Here we go!

Just shorted the break of an inside hourly bar.
Short 2978 EUR/USD at 1.2837

Pending order(6): Long 1489 EUR/USD at 1.2773

Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254



Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $299.44
Current position: Short 6740 EUR/USD at 1.3036 (avg.)
Current exposure: 64 pips, $19.06 or 15.00% (of starting equity)

Nice moves!

Whoa! The Euro has fallen nearly 500 pips from my initial entry at one point. It's currently sitting about 350 points in my favor. Of course, I'm looking for a place to stack on another leg. The pair is currently consolidating, so someplace near this level is probably a good place.

Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254



Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $280.49
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Successful stack!

The breakeven buy point was hit for the 2nd leg of this trade. Due to the way OANDA executes trades, I've removed the stop losses and needed to place a pending long order to flatten the position if the pair should get back to the price where my open equity will once again equal the starting equity for this position.

Pending order(5): Long 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3254

I will also be looking to stack on a 3rd leg someplace...

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $179.84
Current position: Short 3768 EUR/USD at 1.3194 (avg.)
Current exposure: 0

Hit.

Order triggered, but it turns out I didn't have quite enough margin to take that position size. I've adjusted it downwards, and the trade is on with 3300 units.

Pending order(4): Long 1650 EUR/USD at 1.3144

Initial exposure: 57 pips, $18.81 or 14.80% (of starting equity)

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $148.04
Current position: Short 5418 EUR/USD at 1.3203 (avg.)
Current exposure: 57 pips, $18.81 or 14.80% (of starting equity)

Press point

If this hour's low is taken out, I want to go ahead and try to stack on another short.

Pending order(3): Short 4236 EUR/USD at 1.3189
Pending order(4): Long 2118 EUR/USD at 1.3144
Initial Stop: 1.3234
Initial exposure: 45 pips, $19.06 or 15.00% (of starting equity)

Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $139.13
Current position: Short 2118 EUR/USD at 1.3224
Current exposure: 0

Free riding point hit

Around 8:10 am, the order to sell 1/2 the position was triggered, making this a risk-free trade. Looking for a place now to press it. Actually, a break below this hour's low looks like a good place. to watch.


Starting equity: $127.07
Current open equity: $144.55
Current position: Short 2118 EUR/USD at 1.3224
Current exposure: 0

There's the break!

We're in. Gee, it's been kind of a long time since I've traded the EUR/USD... I wonder what kind of pain is in store....


Pending order(2): Long 2118 EUR/USD at 1.3179

Current closed equity: $127.07
Current position: Short 4236 EUR/USD at 1.3224
Current exposure: 45 pips, $19.06 or 15.00%

DIBS on the Euro

Taking the inside bar setup on the Euro.

Pending order(1): Short 4236 EUR/USD at 1.3224
Pending order(2): Long 2118 EUR/USD at 1.3179
Initial stop: 1.3269
Initial exposure: 45 pips, $19.06 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $127.07
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Miracle rescinded.

The pair just collapsed and took out both stops. Just not the move, I guess. Will be looking for another place to enter, not necessarily this pair.


Previous equity: $148.48
Change: -$21.42
% Change: -14.43%

Current closed equity: $127.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Pressing the trade

I am currently regretting this, but: Long 2682 GBP/USD at 1.7396

Initial exposure: 83 pips, $22.27 or 14.99%

Pending order (5): Short 1341 GPB/USD at 1.7479

Current closed equity: $160.31
Starting equity: $148.48
Current position: Long 4023 GBP/USD at 1.7382 (avg)
Current exposure: $22.27 or 14.99% (of starting equity)

It's a Forex miracle!

I was not expecting this trade to survive the weekend. It was pretty close to the stop on Friday afternoon, and with the super wide spreads during the Sunday session, it wouldn't have taken much of a move down to take out the stop. Somehow, the stop didn't get hit, and now the pending order to lock in a breakeven was hit at 2:11 this morning. Cool. Now looking for another place to stack in another long.


Current open equity: $172.35
Current closed equity: $148.48
Current position: Long 1341 GBP/USD at 1.7350
Current exposure: 0

Top popped

Long order triggered. Not winning any prizes so far, but we shall see...

Pending order (4): Short 1341 GPB/USD at 1.7433


Current closed equity: $148.48
Current position: Long 2682 GBP/USD at 1.7350
Current exposure: 83 pips, $22.27 or 14.99%

Yet another for the loss column

Short trade just got stopped out.


Previous equity: $174.74
Pip change: -83
Change: -$26.26
% Change: -15.03%




Current closed equity: $148.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Reinstating topside orders

This open trade has blown chunks almost from the get-go. No matter. Replacing orders to go long with smaller size.

Pending order (3): Long 2682 GBP/USD at 1.7350
Pending order (4): Short 1341 GPB/USD at 1.7433
Initial stop: 1.7267
Initial exposure: 83 pips, $22.27 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $174.74
Current position: Short 3156 GBP/USD at 1.7247
Current exposure: 83 pips, $26.20 or 14.99%

Short side triggered

Canceled topside orders for now. I will likely put them back with reduced size if this trade should go badly and get stopped out.


Pending order (2): Long 1578 GPB/USD at 1.7164

Current closed equity: $174.74
Current position: Short 3156 GBP/USD at 1.7247
Current exposure: 83 pips, $26.20 or 14.99%

Setting up for the upside too...

This consolidation could break either way.

Pending order (3): Long 3156 GBP/USD at 1.7350
Pending order (4): Short 1578 GPB/USD at 1.7433
Initial stop: 1.7267
Initial exposure: 83 pips, $26.20 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $174.74
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Taking another tack

If GBP breaks today's low, I'm going for it on the short side.

Pending order (1): Short 3156 GBP/USD at 1.7247
Pending order (2): Long 1578 GPB/USD at 1.7164
Initial stop: 1.7330
Initial exposure: 83 pips, $26.20 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $174.74
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Bitch slapped

As I lay sleeping, the 1st order got hit, and then stopped out about 4:30 am EDT. Looking for the next setup...

(Canceled pending short order, of course.)

Previous equity: $205.56
Pip change: -83
Change: -$30.82
% Change: -14.99%




Current closed equity: $174.74
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Looking at GBP

GBP/USD has been rising towards a line of resistance that has been turning the pair back since late Wednesday. If it breaks above it, I want to be long.

Pending order(1): Long 3716 GBP/USD at 1.7359
Pending order(2): Short 1858 GBP/USD at 1.7442
Initial stop: 1.7276
Initial exposure: 83 pips, $30.84 or 15.00%



Current closed equity: $205.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Canceled pending orders

The pair seems to have stopped moving, and I think there will be superior opportunities elsewhere or at least elsewhen.

Current closed equity: $205.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

oof

Well, that mercifully short lived and ill-fated trade was something like getting gored by a mad elephant. Yow!

Previous equity: $241.40
Pip change: -100
Change: -$35.85
% Change: -14.85%

The short side is back in play for me if this pair takes out this hour's low.

Pending order(1): Short 3082 EUR/JPY at 135.50
Pending order(2): Long 1541 EUR/JPY at 134.50
Initial stop: 136.50
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $30.82 or 14.99%



Current closed equity: $205.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Topside triggered

I can't say I'm particularly thrilled about this, but the long order got hit first. Who knows... maybe I'll be wrong and the trade will kick ass. It's happened before. Canceled the pending orders 3 and 4.



Pending order (2): Short 1810 EUR/JPY at 137.74



Current closed equity: $241.40
Current position: Long 3620 EUR/JPY at 136.74
Current exposure: 100 pips, $36.20 or 15.00%

Edging up to the range

Just moved the bottom orders up a bit to catch the break of the recent lows if there is to be one.


Pending order (3): Short 3620 EUR/JPY at 134.04
Pending order (4): Long 1810 EUR/JPY at 133.04
Initial stop: 135.04
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $36.20 or 15.00%


Current closed equity: $241.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Or maybe not...

After the Philly Fed release, the pair seems to want to go back down. If that is to be the case, I'm positioned to go for lower levels after penetration of today's low.

Pending order (3): Short 3620 EUR/JPY at 133.48
Pending order (4): Long 1810 EUR/JPY at 132.48
Initial stop: 134.48
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $36.20 or 15.00%


Current closed equity: $241.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next E/J setup

Should this pair go on a ride higher, I'm going to get on board and try stacking up some free trades the other way.

Pending order (1): Long 3620 EUR/JPY at 136.74
Pending order (2): Short 1810 EUR/JPY at 137.74
Initial stop: 135.74
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $36.20 or 15.00%


Current closed equity: $241.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Things looking up

I came within less than 5 pips of getting stopped out after the CPI release. Perhaps up is the way to go from here. And inside bar is developing this hour, and a break of it could be a good place to launch a long. Closed out the open trade with a nice profit... but disappointingly not nearly as nice as it was yesterday evening.

Previous equity: $207.00
Pip change: +75 and +106
Change: +$34.40
% Change: +16.62%

Current closed equity: $241.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying from another spot

The pair has traced a consolidation pattern overnight, which has broken out to the upside this hour. If that breakout should fail by taking out this hour's low, it should be a good place to add to the short position. Equity will be lower at that point, so a size adjustment is required to keep the risk to only 1/2 of the open profits at the entry point.

Pending order (1): Short 3000 EUR/JPY at 134.87
Pending order (2): Long 1500 EUR/JPY at 133.87
Initial stop: 135.87
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $30.00 or 11.22% (of total equity at entry)

Current closed equity: $221.33
Current open equity: $247.45
Current position: Short 1932 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Current exposure: 75 pips locked in, +$14.33 r +6.92%

Place to press the trade

EUR/JPY has finally started rising a bit, exposing a low to be shorted. I am willing to risk 1/2 of the open profits that will be available if the pair reaches that point again. Spreads are high right now, so I'm actually counting the low 8 pips beneath the number on the chart. I've sized appropriately to give myself 100 pips of leeway. Again, if the pair should fall 100 pips from my entry, I will cover half the position and leave the stop on that portion where it is.

Pending order (1): Short 3750 EUR/JPY at 133.28
Pending order (2): Long 1875 EUR/JPY at 132.28
Initial stop: 134.28
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $37.50 or 12.66% (of total equity at entry)

Current closed equity: $221.33
Current open equity: $280.04
Current position: Short 1932 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Current exposure: 75 pips locked in, +$14.33 or +6.92%

How do you say 'Boo-Yah' backwards?

This pair is breaking down very nicely. The trade is positive by more than 300 pips... the only thing is that the fall has been so precipitous that there's been no place to stack on any additional size. Cry me a river, huh?
Anyway, the stop is moved to the entry price to lock in at least 1/2 of the amount originally risked for a profit.

Current closed equity: $221.33
Current open equity: $272.14
Current position: Short 1932 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Current exposure: 75 pips locked in, +$14.33 or +6.92%

Free trade!

The pending order was hit, locking in the amount I had risked. That makes this a free trade with the stop a nice 150+ pips away. (Equities are getting hammered again!)




Current closed equity: $207.00
Current open equity: $221.33
Current position: Short 1932 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Current exposure: 0 pips

Downside break

Pair broke the box-range to the downside. Canceled pending orders sitting on the topside. Trade got nicely positive at first, but it's retracing now... although it hasn't ticked into negative territory yet.


Pending order (4): Long 1932 EUR/JPY at 136.50


Current closed equity: $207.00
Current position: Short 3864 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Current exposure: 75 pips, $28.98 or 14%

Boxing in the other side too...

This range will break one way or another. There is an equivalent short setup to try. Whichever gets hit first, I'll cancel the other.

Pending order (3): Short 3864 EUR/JPY at 137.25
Pending order (4): Long 1932 EUR/JPY at 136.50
Initial stop: 138.00
Initial exposure: 75 pips, $28.98 or 14%

Current closed equity: $207.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting it up again...

Same idea, different levels.

Pending order (1): Long 3864 EUR/JPY at 138.94
Pending order (2): Short 1932 EUR/JPY at 139.69
Initial stop: 138.19
Initial exposure: 75 pips, $28.98 or 14%

Current closed equity: $207.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Loss taken

Pair came back in. A new inside bar setup may be in the making, so I might be long this pair again next hour.

Previous equity: $240.16
Pip change: -50
Change: -$33.16
% Change: -13.81%

Current closed equity: $207.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Another shot at E/J

Just entered a long in EUR/JPY as it broke above the day's high at 138.81.

Pending order: Short 3362 EUR/JPY at 139.322

Current closed equity: $240.16
Current position: Long 6724 EUR/JPY at 138.822
Current exposure: 50 pips, $33.62 or 13.99%

Order hit, trade stopped out.

The first entry order was hit around 1:30 EDT, and the pair approached the second order, but didn't hit it before getting stopped out at 4:30 EDT during a news event when the spread must have been quite wide, since the low on the chart at that time is 10 pips from the stop price.
Then, of course, the pair went higher and triggered the 2nd order. This is always a problem with OANDA, since their platform doesn't offer the ability to automatically cancel orders when certain events happen. So I lost another 50 pips on the 1/2 size short order. Sometimes it results in a win... so it's not a huge problem, but I'd really prefer that the platform have the functionality to implement my plans my way.

Previous equity: $270
Pip change: -43 and -50
Change: -$29.84
% Change: -11.05%

Current closed equity: $240.16
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Same sort of deal...

Taking a shot at a long in GBP using the same kind of setup.

Pending order(1): Long 4396 GBP/USD at 1.7458
Pending order(2): Short 2198 GBP/USD at 1.7501
Initial stop: 1.7415
Initial exposure: 43 pips, $18.91 or 7.00%


Current closed equity: $270.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Cancelled pending orders.

The pair just didn't want to move in the right direction... will look for a new opportunity tomorrow morning.


Current closed equity: $270.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Adjustments

A lower risk entry point has developed as the pair consolidates. The new entries and exits are as follows:


Pending order(1): Long 3870 USD/JPY at 102.37
Pending order(2): Short 1935 USD/JPY at 102.75
Initial stop: 101.99
Initial exposure: 38 pips, $14.71 or 5.45%


Current closed equity: $270.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying something a little different

This time I am going to try and 'stack' on some free trades. The idea is Long USD/JPY as equities snap back from these panic lows. It's possible we'll see some recovery for a few weeks, which should drag this pair higher.
The first entry point is just over last hour's high at 102.69. That hour drew a long downward pointing 'tail' in the context of a short-term uptrend. Its high is a high-probability place for a long. The tail is nearly 100 pips long, so I'm using 100 pips as my initial stop size.
In order to stack on some free trades, I'll be selling half of this position once it is 100 pips in the green, thereby allowing me to leave the stop where it is and making the trade risk-free. Then I'll look for another entry point to do the same thing.

Pending order(1): Long 3870 USD/JPY at 102.69
Pending order(2): Short 1935 USD/JPY at 103.69
Initial stop: 101.69
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $38.70 or 14.33%


Current closed equity: $270.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0