Prediction is very difficult...

...especially about the future! Here were my prognostications for this past year... let's see how it shook out:


1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.
Well, both hit multiyear lows against the greenback, but not *that* low. I still expect this to happen sometime.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.
Nope... got within 440 points though! One hell of a bear market rally ensued and is still playing out.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)
Nope.

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.
Sure... but this was like predicting sunrise.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.
Again.... like predicting sunrise.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.
This one was really more of a frustrated whine than a prediction. Boobus americanus has certainly been busily breeding and relentlessly abusing his resultant spawn... but I have been pleasantly surprised this year by many of my fellow tax-cattle.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.
Not on this account...because I mostly stopped trading it until recently. I did achieve new equity highs in my main account before I had to stop trading that one too.

All in all, it has been a very interesting and fantastically productive year. In fact, I will likely look back on 2009 as the year I truly came alive. If life does begin at 40 for most people, I'm glad to have gotten a 2 year head start.

Happy New Year and Decade!