Next bad idea always in progress...

I decided to get long the Kiwi after last week's pullback and the overnight strength.

Current open equity: $25.39
Current closed equity: $25.74
Current position: Long 514 NZD/USD at 0.71468
Current exposure: 71 pips, $3.65 or 14.18%

Whack!

Oh well... USD/CHF took out the stop overnight.

Previous equity: $ 30.15
Change: -$ 4.41
% Change: -14.63%

Current closed equity: $25.74
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New blog for the primary strategy:

http://steelvalleysqueeze.blogspot.com/

Next up... hopefully the USD!

Trade on! Looking for some more USD strength, this time against the Swissie.

Current open equity: $29.25
Current closed equity: $30.15
Current position: Long 904 USD/CHF at 1.04218
Current exposure: 50 pips, $4.52 or 14.99%

Another disappointing profit...

Sure... 224 pips is nice, but I had over 400 in this trade at one point. This is one of the many things that makes profitable trading so difficult. If you hand me 224 pips, I'm happy... but if you hand me 400 and take back 176, I'm bummed even though the net result is the same! This is the pernicious Endowment Effect in action. (Killer of many accounts.) On to the next trade...

Previous equity: $ 17.44
Change: +$12.71
% Change: +72.88%

Current closed equity: $30.15
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Locking in 224 pips!

Still rockin'!! We're holding on to Monday's gains so far. I want to give the trade some room, especially with the Number of All Numbers due tomorrow morning. If this stop gets hit, I'll be bummed, but I'll have taken a nice big chunk out of this little uptrend.

Current open equity: $37.16
Current closed equity: $17.92
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Locking in 103 pips

Oz is opening the week by charging higher in the London session. I'm up 235 pips! We are close to where the decline started back on December 14. There is very likely some supply up here, and if today's and Thursday's gains are given back, I will be out and very likely looking to get long the US$. I'll probably look to the Loonie for that... the cost of carry on short Aussie positions is not attractive.

Current open equity: $30.02
Current closed equity: $17.81
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Prediction is very difficult...

...especially about the future! Here were my prognostications for this past year... let's see how it shook out:


1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.
Well, both hit multiyear lows against the greenback, but not *that* low. I still expect this to happen sometime.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.
Nope... got within 440 points though! One hell of a bear market rally ensued and is still playing out.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)
Nope.

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.
Sure... but this was like predicting sunrise.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.
Again.... like predicting sunrise.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.
This one was really more of a frustrated whine than a prediction. Boobus americanus has certainly been busily breeding and relentlessly abusing his resultant spawn... but I have been pleasantly surprised this year by many of my fellow tax-cattle.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.
Not on this account...because I mostly stopped trading it until recently. I did achieve new equity highs in my main account before I had to stop trading that one too.

All in all, it has been a very interesting and fantastically productive year. In fact, I will likely look back on 2009 as the year I truly came alive. If life does begin at 40 for most people, I'm glad to have gotten a 2 year head start.

Happy New Year and Decade!