I haven't forgotten

I've been terribly busy in my other business as well as keeping up with trading... so updating this blog got sacrificed. I'm in the process of designing and testing a new trading strategy... one which I may apply to this account, which is currently short USD/JPY and sitting around $30 in equity... wow, talk about a drawdown! But, I knew such was possible when I started this game.
Anyway, updates will resume again someday soon... I may do less with the graphing, since that graphic isn't exactly easy to make each day.

Year end...

I have actually been trading this account for the last few days... even though I haven't been updating this site. It hasn't been going that well... but it isn't anything out of the ordinary. Now, here are some predictions for the coming year, which I'll review this time next year.

1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.

Happy New Year!

(I will restart regular updates on Monday, January 5th.)

Perhaps the 3rd time will be a charm...

...or not. Who knows? Trade triggered. Producing profits so far.




Current open equity: $76.06
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,370 EUR/USD at 1.4024 (avg.)
Current exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Yet another kick in the crotch

EUR failed to stay down. Setting up again, this time wider.

Pending order: Short 1,662 EUR/USD at 1.3958
Initial stop: 1.4031
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Current open equity: $70.35
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 0

This trade hasn't been easy....

I got knocked off the stack trade over the weekend, and nearly got stopped out of the whole position. EUR has come back down, and I've re-entered another short to try and stack on more size again. That trade started out well, then turned and nearly stopped out, and now is on it's way back to profits. Wild times indeed.

Entry on new stack trade: Short 1,322 EUR/USD at 1.3970
Stop: 1.4022

Current open equity: $79.09
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,030 EUR/USD at 1.4043 (avg)
Current exposure: $7.00 or 53.89% of open profit at risk

Whole trade now risk-free.

Moved stop to entry point on main position.


Current open equity: $84.44
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: 0

Success!

The stack trade is now risk free.

Current open equity: $82.45
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: $9.56 or 15.00% of starting equity

Stack on

The trade is triggered and looks like shit so far.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,844 EUR/USD at 1.4064 (avg)
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Stack attempt

Having broken down heavily, EUR is consolidatin around 1.40. If it should break the lows of the last 2 30-minute bars, I'm going to go short and hopefully get some more size into this trade. I'm keeping it close... only 44 pips at risk and $5, which represents a little less than half the open profit.

Pending order (2): Short 1,136 EUR/USD at 1.3992
Pending order (3): Long 568 EUR/USD at 1.3948
Initial stop: 1.4036
Initial exposure: 44 pips, $5.00 or 37.57% of open profits.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Trade triggered

I got stopped in at around 4 am, and the trade started producing profits right away. If the opportunity to get more size on comes along, I'll be taking it. Also, I know that I haven't updated the chart on the top of the screen for a couple of days. I've been designing a strategy for another account for the past couple of days, but I will get to it.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

New idea

Scratched the Aussie trade entry. Setting up to short the Euro if it breaks the day's low instead.

Pending order (1): Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Initial stop: 1.4315
Initial exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up yet again...

Long if this hour's high breaks. Getting close to this drawdown exceeding the largest one to date. There are going to be lots of these on the way. When will this one end? We'll see...

Pending order (1): Long 1,292 at 0.7072
Initial stop: 0.6998
Initial exposure: 74 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And again...

Whacked again. Setting up again right after I log this...

Previous equity: $74.91
Change: -$11.22
% Change: -14.98%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

Here we go again...

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Current exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Reposition

Lowering all prices by 44 pips to play off a break of this hour's high instead.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Initial stop: 0.7005
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Set 'em up again...

This time the trigger is last hour's high on Oz.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7109
Initial stop: 0.7049
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Another one bites the dust...

Stopped out. I'll set this pair up again as soon as I finish logging this one...

Previous equity: $88.13
Change: -$13.22
% Change: -15.00%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

Ok, here we go... let the losing begin!



Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Current exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Next idea...

Oz has formed an inside bar on the hourly chart. If the top of it is broken, I will be long.

Pending order (1): Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Initial stop: 0.7056
Initial exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade off.

JPY, after having broken down nicely and nearly hit the point where I would have moved my stop, turned around and took me out. i guess the drawdown was not over yet. No matter. Next trade...

Previous equity: $103.73
Change: -$15.60
% Change: -15.04%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0