After today's action having traced out an 'inside day', the low of the day gives me a good place to move my stop. I definitely want to avoid trailing too closely, and I'm leaving a few pips for holiday-widened spreads; however, a break of a low of an inside day is likely to lead to further weakness, so that's where I'll stop out.
Current open equity: $392.10
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $61.01 or 21.00% of starting equity.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
More locked.
We've just gone charging through yesterday's high after having retraced almost to the stop overnight. This is a good place to go ahead and move the stop up to the point that locks in a profit that is the same size as the original risk... 1R as Van Tharp calls it. If we get a consolidation pattern around these levels, it will be a good place to try stacking on an additional long. We shall see...
Current open equity: $422.97
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $43.58 or 15.00% of starting equity.
Current open equity: $422.97
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $43.58 or 15.00% of starting equity.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Lock time.
Now that the trade has been up by nearly 3 times the amount of pips originally at risk, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry point.
Current open equity: $364.50
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $21.79 or 7.5% of starting equity.
Current open equity: $364.50
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $21.79 or 7.5% of starting equity.
Risk free in 90 minutes
Nice way to start off the trading week. Let's see how long this one lasts.
Current open equity: $337.82
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 0
Current open equity: $337.82
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 0
Trade triggered
Here we go...
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%
DIBS on Oz
Simple inside bar setup on Aussie.
Pending order (1): Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Initial stop: 0.6262
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Initial stop: 0.6262
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Stopped out in Sunday Slop
Friday's action was just dandy up until the last couple of hours. Those are the breaks. Call it the Geithner rally. Of course all that news really means to me is that I know I'll be saying 'That worthless SOB Geithner' for the next couple of years.
Previous equity: $269.56
Change: +$20.93
%Change: +7.76%
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Previous equity: $269.56
Change: +$20.93
%Change: +7.76%
Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Friday, November 21, 2008
Whoa!
The Pound has broken down very nicely in the last few minutes. Now that I'm up 2x the amount of pips I risked, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry. No sense in letting this big of a winner turn into a scratch.
Current open equity: $350.50
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: Locked in +$21.65 or +7.5% of Starting equity
Current open equity: $350.50
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: Locked in +$21.65 or +7.5% of Starting equity
Quite the nail-biter!
I generally prefer not to short pairs that are up significantly on the day, but sometimes it works out. Again, entries are not all that important anyway. This trade was very nearly stopped out at about 8:30 this morning, but it has now reached the risk-free point. You just never know what color marble you'll be drawing from the bag. At least I'm sure that this one isn't a loser.
Current open equity: $318.96
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 0
Current open equity: $318.96
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 0
New new plan in effect
Here we go!
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
New new plan
Scratch the Aussie idea. GBP has drawn a 'pin bar' pattern on the hourly chart, and I'm playing that instead.
Pending order (1): Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Initial stop: 1.5067
Initial exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Initial stop: 1.5067
Initial exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
New plan
Trying a long play in Aussie. Not really a DIBS play, but close enough... entries aren't really that important.
Pending order (1): Long 7,486 AUD/USD at 0.6283
Pending order (2): Short 3,743 AUD/USD at 0.6337
Initial stop: 0.6229
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Long 7,486 AUD/USD at 0.6283
Pending order (2): Short 3,743 AUD/USD at 0.6337
Initial stop: 0.6229
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Scratch that idea
USD/JPY is moving higher, and while a reversal is certainly possible, there is probably some other kind of trouble out there to get into. Canceled pending orders.
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Next idea....
If USD/JPY takes out this hour's low, I'm selling it.
Pending order (1): Short 8,086 USD/JPY at 94.68
Pending order (2): Long 4,043 USD/JPY at 94.18
Initial stop: 95.18
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Short 8,086 USD/JPY at 94.68
Pending order (2): Long 4,043 USD/JPY at 94.18
Initial stop: 95.18
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
I knew it would happen
At least, I had a pretty good idea. If I *knew* I would have closed the trade before it got stopped out for another breakeven. Next setup...
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Umph..
Well, they sure made me sweat for it, with price diddling about within 2 or 3 pips of my trigger price for about 25 minutes... but I am finally risk-free in this trade.
Current open equity: $314.53
Starting equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 0
Current open equity: $314.53
Starting equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 0
I'm in.
Not looking so great so far, but hey... what do I know?
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Reposition again
A NEW, new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.
Pending order (1): Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Initial stop: 1.4839
Initial exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Initial stop: 1.4839
Initial exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Reposition
A new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.
Pending order (1): Short 6,322 GBP/USD at 1.4778
Pending order (2): Long 3,161 GBP/USD at 1.4714
Initial stop: 1.4842
Initial exposure: 64 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Short 6,322 GBP/USD at 1.4778
Pending order (2): Long 3,161 GBP/USD at 1.4714
Initial stop: 1.4842
Initial exposure: 64 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Next idea
DIBS on GBP is my best idea for now. I really don't like shorting AUD because the carry is still too high, and that was my other potential idea.
Pending order (1): Short 7,356 GBP/USD at 1.4749
Pending order (2): Long 3,678 GBP/USD at 1.4694
Initial stop: 1.4804
Initial exposure: 55pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
Pending order (1): Short 7,356 GBP/USD at 1.4749
Pending order (2): Long 3,678 GBP/USD at 1.4694
Initial stop: 1.4804
Initial exposure: 55pips, $40.46 or 15.00%
Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0
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