Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Just can't catch a break...

Stopped out again. Pending order still pending.

Pending order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.72 or 8.33%

Current Closed Equity: $80.63
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop moved down to breakeven -1. Pending order still pending, and if it gets hit, it will be with the same size as this trade now, since there will be no loss. I'll cancel that order later today if it doesn't get hit.

Pending order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.72 or 8.33%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: +1 pip locked in, +$0.28 or +0.35%

Pending order

If this original setup fails, I'll take the long signal. Calculating what my equity will be at that time and then figuring out the position size is a simple matter. After the loss on this trade, equity would be at $73.38. I multiply that by 50, the leverage factor, to get $3669 and divide by the entry price 1.4170, which gives 2589 units. I'll round that down to 2550, and that's the size on the next order.

Pending order: Long 2550 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.12 or 8.34%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: $7.00 or 8.71%

Taking a different setup...

A short setup appeared called a DIBS setup. This is a break of an 'inside bar', where the high and low of an hour's prices are contained within the high and low of the previous hour. The 4am bar displays this setup, and the 5am bar broke the low and is under the open price. This is a low risk setup, because the stop is placed at the opposite extreme of the inside bar that was broken.
Additionally, this particular example of this setup gives a signal in the opposite direction if this first trade should fail.

Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Initial stop: 1.4169
Initial exposure: 25 pips, $7.00 or 8.71%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: $7.00 or 8.71%

Setting up for pain once again...

Pretty much nothing in the way of scheduled news today. Crude oil inventories might cause some motion, or maybe not. I'm looking to short the Euro if it breaks the low it established earlier this morning.

Pending Order: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4120
Initial stop: 1.4162
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.63%

Current closed equity: $80.38
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

What else is new?

After being up over 100 pips, the pair reversed and took out the stop. Almost to the tick, and then started heading back up. Guess that was the wrong place to put the stop. Will see if anything interesting develops.

Current closed equity: $80.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved to breakeven +1

Trade showed a gain of 74 pips at one point. OANDA finally decided to get their shit together and let me back into the platform. I really don't get what is going on over there... they do realize that if we traders can't trade that we'll go elsewhere and they'll be out of business, right? RIGHT?!
Anyway, stop is moved. Let's hope this one goes for a few thousand pips.

Current Closed Equity: $80.06
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Current exposure: +1pip locked in, +$0.28 or 0.35%

Taking the Long shot again

OANDA having another 'moment', but I can tell the order was triggered. Not the greatest so far, but we'll see.

Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Initial stop: 1.4075
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.69%

Current Closed Equity: $80.06
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Current exposure: $11.76 or 14.69%

Cancelled pending orders.

There will likely be a better time and place to get into this pair. It has dropped significantly from where I was considering taking a long position. I'll wait until after the econ news release at 10am, then we'll see where we're at.

Current closed equity: $80.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up long

I can't say I like this setup too much, but that's not a reason not to take it. The misgivings I have are because the EUR/USD has already moved 100+ pips from the open. Volatility is very high right now, and this pair has been shorted like crazy for several days now, so there should be plenty of people poised to panic as the pair goes higher, so I think this has a shot at working. I suppose I also don't want it to work, since it's against my position in another account. No matter...

Pending Order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4202
Initial stop: 1.4160
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.69%

Current closed equity: $80.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Monday, September 8, 2008

@@#^&*(#&#$!!!!!!

Well, I know I got stopped out, which is enough of a bitch... but OANDA is having one of its 'moments' again where access just freezes up and I can't tell just what kind of pittance I escaped with. It wasn't much, I know that.

Flat for now. Not taking any new positions either, since tomorrow will be a new day to go after the EUR or GBP. I hate trading the JPY intraday, and I do it very rarely... moves of this sort being the primary reason.

Stop moved

Stop moved down to breakeven -1 pip at 108.525.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535
Current exposure: +$0.275 or +0.34%

Short USD/JPY

Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535, initial stop 108.955, exposure 42 pips, $11.55, or 14.46%.

This pair hasn't done much this morning. The theme this morning is massive dollar strength, but not much strength against the Yen. I'm going to bet against the dollar where it is the weakest. JPY is below its open, and has been probing lower, so I've shorted it on a pullback. So far, not looking like the best plan, but we'll see.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535
Current exposure: $11.55, or 14.46%

Canceled pending order

Wow! That was one hell of a move to start off the week... I may be looking for another pair to trade, since I think we've pretty well blown the daily range on EUR/USD already.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

A new week begins...

Setting up to go long 2750 EUR/USD at 1.4429, which is a break of a recent hourly inside bar to the upside. Initial stop is 1.4387 for an exposure of 42pips, $11.55, or 14.46%. Placed order and going to bed... either it gets hit or doesn't, and either way is ok.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Friday, September 5, 2008

Rocked again.

Stopped out. May set up again, but maybe not.

Previous equity: $93.49
Pip change: -42
Change: -$13.63
% Change: -14.58%

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going for the Long shot again

Long 3250 EUR/USD from 1.4319 at 8:44a.

Initial stop: 1.4277

This idea came about because the pair broke the day's high, clearly putting it above the open. It also broke the initial high that was put in on the NFP release. We know a snapback in the EUR has to happen sometime... when or from where is unknowable, but if this is it, I'm in the right position. So far it's been El Choppo.

Current closed equity: $93.49
Current position: Long 3250 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $13.65 or 14.6%

Trade closed for blowing chunks.

EUR broke its low, but then began reversing and took out the high of the hourly bar that contained the low. That is a possible reversal, and even if it isn't, a stop that is less than about 50 pips away is almost certain to get taken out on an NFP release. I can always re-enter after NFP if anything looks interesting.

Previous equity: $88.65
Pip change: +16
Change: +$4.84
% Change: +5.46%

Current closed equity: $93.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop to breakeven -1 pip at 1.4265.




Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: Short 3050 EUR/USD
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.30 or +0.003%

Let's see if we can get lower.

Short 3050 EUR/USD from 1.4266 at 4:09a.

Initial stop: 1.4308

Trade began producing profits immediately, which is the point of the game. We've just challenged yesterday's low, which held, but may give way soon. Also, this is NFP day, so this could be very interesting. If this pair retraces too much and is sitting too close to breakeven when NFP is about to come out, I will close it. In fact, I'm moving the stop to breakeven next hour.

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: Short 3050 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $12.81 or 14.45%