Cancelled pending orders.

Whoo! Some stunning moves today! And equities are getting clobbered... again! There's an interesting cross-current developing. The much maligned Greenback has been doing stunningly well against the EUR and the GBP, but it's at a 20-day low against the JPY. Now, we all know that the JPY is an even bigger joke than the USD, and that it tends to be inversely correlated with US equities. This is due to the fact that since Yen are so cheap to borrow, big institutions do so and put the proceeds into equities in search of higher yields. They also put those borrowed Yen into higher yielding currencies. When those trades go badly, the marginal players start selling equities and currencies to buy Yen and pay back the loans. Hence, equities down, Yen up.
Earlier in the year, we had the USD getting slaughtered against everything, including JPY. Now the Dollar is strong against everything but the Yen. This suggests that the EU and British economies will be in even worse shape than the US, which itself won't be winning any beauty contests. If this situation persists, there are going to be some more great shorting opportunities in the JPY crosses. The GBP/JPY cross is already at a 3-year low- down about 500 pips for the week. We may even have a 'breakaway gap' on the monthly chart of that pair sitting between last week's close and this week's open. Last time that happened it was early 1993, and the pair finally bottomed in mid 1995 about 5,000 pips lower. The biggest problem with this pair right now is that you can't get paid to short it. GBP still pays a much higher yield, but clearly the markets are signaling that the rate differential is likely to shrink because the Brits will have to lower rates in the face of a recession. With Japan being a perennial basket case as far as rates go, can this pair ever have positive-carry on the short side? Markets do have a funny way of doing the seemingly impossible, so who knows? I know I wouldn't stake my whole account for or against it... that's for sure.

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

That was quick...

Pummeled for another 42 pips in just a few minutes!

Will set up to go long at the top of the breakdown candle (1.4416). Glutton for punishment today I guess. No matter... I expect this endeavor to be incredibly difficult to psychologically endure. Talk about your wild swings! This account hit an intraday high earlier this morning at around $140. That's a swing of 36%. There's a reason this blog is so titled! I have other accounts that I play much more conservatively.

Previous equity: $103.42
Pip change: -42
Change: -$14.77
% Change: -14.28%

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going for the Long side again...

Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4435 at 10:05a.

Initial stop: 1.4393

I'm betting that there is still demand for this pair down at this level. So far, this hasn't proved to be the most brilliant move, but who knows? Anything can happen...

Current closed equity: $103.42
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $14.81 or 14.32%

An even harder kick in the crotch!

Stopped out. Heartbreaking.

Previous equity: $102.85
Pip change: +1.6 (got some positive carry)
Change: +$0.57
% Change: +0.55%

Current closed equity: $103.42
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

I may just go ahead and re-enter this trade, considering the pair's current behavior. This is one situation where I'm willing to be long while below the open.

How does it feel to be a jackass?

Well, I *had* about 108 pips in this trade... and then the rate fell by about 90 pips this morning! I'm still in it, and I still have the idea that it will get back up there. Recovery is already in progress, but that is one hell of a thing to look at in your account when you're out there swinging with this kind of outrageous leverage. Such is the price of going for the big scores...

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.35 or +0.003%

Stop moved to breakeven +1

Giving this baby plenty of room... so far it's up 70 pips.

Moved stop up to 1.4437 to lock in 1 pip.

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.35 or +0.003%

Taking another shot at the upside....

Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436 at 8:08a.

Initial stop: 1.4394

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $14.81 or 14.4%

Trade broke higher nicely right away, and then started retracing. We shall see. It's about time the EUR had an up day, but anything can happen...anything at all.

Trade cut short for sucking.

Previous equity: $113.66
Pip change: -28
Change: -$10.81
% Change: -9.51%

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Will set up to go long again if we cross the open at 1.4436.

Maybe down is the right direction again

EUR makes yet another new low... where will it end?

Short 3900 EUR/USD from 1.4389 at 5:03a.

Initial stop: 1.4426

Current closed equity: $113.66
Current position: Short 3900 EUR/USD at 1.4389
Current exposure: $14.43 or 12.7%

So much for that idea!

Previous equity: $129.40
Pip change: -36
Change: -$15.74
% Change: -12.16%

Current closed equity: $113.66
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade closed for misbehavior

The hourly bars gave an 'inside bar' break signal in the long direction. With EUR having gotten so oversold over the last few days, I figured this was a low-risk point to try and catch a reversal. If I am wrong, I won't be wrong for long.

Previous equity: $113.04
Pip change: +43
Change: +$16.36
% Change: +14.47%

Long EUR based on DIBS setup at 2:16am:

Long 4425 EUR/USD from 1.4452 at 2:16a.

Initial stop: 1.4416

Current closed equity: $129.40
Current position: Long 4425 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $15.94 or 12.32%

Moved stop...

Moved stop down to 1.4467 to lock in 25 pips.

Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: Short 3800 EUR/USD from 1.4492
Current exposure: +25 pips locked in. +$9.50 or +8.4%

Going for it again...

I generally don't take trades after London close, but the EUR seems to be waking up and doing something.

Short 3800 EUR/USD from 1.4492 at 7:59p.

Initial stop: 1.4532

Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: Short 3800 EUR/USD at 1.4492
Current exposure: $15.20 or 13.45%

Zapped again...

The frustrating thing about waiting for a big move is watching decent sized moves get taken back by the markets. This position was up by 100 pips at one point early this morning. Having to settle for 25 is just no fun at all.

I will set up to short this pair again if this hour's rally fades and takes out this hour's low at 1.4493.

Previous equity: $104.24
Pip change: +25
Change: +$8.80
% Change: +8.44%


Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Moved stop down to 1.4541 to lock in 25 pips.

Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: Short 3550 EUR/USD from 1.4566
Current exposure: +25 pips locked in. +$8.87 or +8.51%

Going down again...

Short 3550 EUR/USD from 1.4566 at 2:00a.

Initial stop: 1.4599

Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: Short 3550 EUR/USD at 1.4566
Current exposure: $11.72 or 11.24%

One more kick in the crotch.

Stopped out after the position had been up by more than 40 pips. Those are the breaks. Done for the day, since London close is only 25 minutes away, and the Americans are off celebrating the glories of communism.

Previous equity: $103.60
Pip change: +1.8
Change: +$0.64
% Change: +0.62%


Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Just moved the stop down to breakeven -2 pips to lock in a very small profit. If the high of this hourly candle is exceeded, it is a probable reversal pattern. Giving it just a couple of pips above the high makes my choice of stop a logical one, since little fake-outs are so common in forex and especially on short-term charts.

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626
Current exposure: +2 pips locked in for +$0.70 or +0.68%

Trade triggered

Short 3500 EUR/USD from 1.4626 at 6:53a.

Initial stop: 1.4650

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626
Current exposure: $8.40 or 8.11%

Not doing anything spectacular so far, but sitting with a small profit which could be worse...

No day off here...

The markets appear to be getting some serious moves on even with the US holiday. There is an 'inside bar' setup in EUR/USD, which I want to short if it breaks to the downside. Setting the order and going back to bed.... either it gets triggered and stopped out with a small loss, goes for a big gain, or doesn't get hit at all.

Pending order: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626. Initial stop: 1.4650
Risking 24 pips at 35 cents per pip making the exposure on this trade $8.40 or 8.11%.

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0