Forex Rollercoaster of Death

Next bad idea always in progress...

2010-01-25T13:57:00.000-05:00

I decided to get long the Kiwi after last week's pullback and the overnight strength.

Current open equity: $25.39
Current closed equity: $25.74
Current position: Long 514 NZD/USD at 0.71468
Current exposure: 71 pips, $3.65 or 14.18%

Whack!

2010-01-25T13:51:00.000-05:00

Oh well... USD/CHF took out the stop overnight.

Previous equity: $ 30.15
Change: -$ 4.41
% Change: -14.63%

Current closed equity: $25.74
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New blog for the primary strategy:

2010-01-22T11:26:00.000-05:00

http://steelvalleysqueeze.blogspot.com/

Next up... hopefully the USD!

2010-01-22T09:45:00.000-05:00

Trade on! Looking for some more USD strength, this time against the Swissie.

Current open equity: $29.25
Current closed equity: $30.15
Current position: Long 904 USD/CHF at 1.04218
Current exposure: 50 pips, $4.52 or 14.99%

Another disappointing profit...

2010-01-22T09:19:00.000-05:00

Sure... 224 pips is nice, but I had over 400 in this trade at one point. This is one of the many things that makes profitable trading so difficult. If you hand me 224 pips, I'm happy... but if you hand me 400 and take back 176, I'm bummed even though the net result is the same! This is the pernicious Endowment Effect in action. (Killer of many accounts.) On to the next trade...

Previous equity: $ 17.44
Change: +$12.71
% Change: +72.88%

Current closed equity: $30.15
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Locking in 224 pips!

2010-01-07T09:31:00.000-05:00

Still rockin'!! We're holding on to Monday's gains so far. I want to give the trade some room, especially with the Number of All Numbers due tomorrow morning. If this stop gets hit, I'll be bummed, but I'll have taken a nice big chunk out of this little uptrend.

Current open equity: $37.16
Current closed equity: $17.92
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Locking in 103 pips

2010-01-04T07:03:00.000-05:00

Oz is opening the week by charging higher in the London session. I'm up 235 pips! We are close to where the decline started back on December 14. There is very likely some supply up here, and if today's and Thursday's gains are given back, I will be out and very likely looking to get long the US$. I'll probably look to the Loonie for that... the cost of carry on short Aussie positions is not attractive.

Current open equity: $30.02
Current closed equity: $17.81
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Prediction is very difficult...

2010-01-01T10:22:00.002-05:00

...especially about the future! Here were my prognostications for this past year... let's see how it shook out:

1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.
Well, both hit multiyear lows against the greenback, but not *that* low. I still expect this to happen sometime.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.
Nope... got within 440 points though! One hell of a bear market rally ensued and is still playing out.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)
Nope.

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.
Sure... but this was like predicting sunrise.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.
Again.... like predicting sunrise.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.
This one was really more of a frustrated whine than a prediction. Boobus americanus has certainly been busily breeding and relentlessly abusing his resultant spawn... but I have been pleasantly surprised this year by many of my fellow tax-cattle.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.
Not on this account...because I mostly stopped trading it until recently. I did achieve new equity highs in my main account before I had to stop trading that one too.

All in all, it has been a very interesting and fantastically productive year. In fact, I will likely look back on 2009 as the year I truly came alive. If life does begin at 40 for most people, I'm glad to have gotten a 2 year head start.

Happy New Year and Decade!

Locking in 37 pips

2009-12-30T06:34:00.000-05:00

Looking at yesterday's action, I'm going to dump this trade if yesterday's low is taken out... hence the odd number of pips being locked in.

Current open equity: $23.36
Current closed equity: $17.63
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Stop to breakeven

2009-12-29T06:47:00.000-05:00

Breaking nicely higher! Sitting on a 150+ pip profit so far...

Current open equity: $25.58
Current closed equity: $17.59
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2009-12-24T11:40:00.000-05:00

The original price didn't get hit, so I moved in on the pullback from this morning's high.

Current open equity: $16.94
Current closed equity: $17.44
Current position: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.88266
Current exposure: 50 pips, $2.61 or 14.96% of current closed equity ($17.44)

Going long down under

2009-12-23T12:37:00.000-05:00

Looking to get into the Aussie $ for a little while...

Pending order 1: Long 522 AUD/USD at 0.8780
Initial stop: 0.8730
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.61 or 14.96% of current closed equity ($17.44)

Current closed equity: $17.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out for 100

2009-12-23T07:17:00.000-05:00

After what seems like an eternity, USD/CAD finally dropped enough to hit the stop. Disappointing, but it could have been worse. On to the next bad idea!

Previous equity: $ 13.67
Change: +$3.77
% Change: +27.58%

Current closed equity: $17.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Locking in 100

2009-12-17T06:22:00.000-05:00

USD/CAD has broken nicely higher... finally! I'm sitting on 300+ points in profit, so I'm taking this opportunity to lock in 100 of those points. I'm shooting for many more, of course.

Current open equity: $25.35
Current closed equity: $13.56
Current position: Long 410 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Current exposure: 0

Stop to breakeven

2009-12-03T08:45:00.000-05:00

Sitting on a nice 90 pip profit so far...

Current open equity: $17.19
Current closed equity: $13.67
Current position: Long 410 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2009-12-01T11:22:00.000-05:00

Let the losing begin....

Current open equity: $13.06
Current closed equity: $13.67
Current position: Long 410 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Current exposure: 50 pips, $2.05 or 14.99% of current closed equity ($13.67)

Once more unto the breach....

2009-12-01T07:22:00.000-05:00

I'm a buyer of this pair if it can get down a little more.

Pending order 1: Long 410 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Initial stop: 1.0375
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.05 or 14.99% of current closed equity ($13.67)

Current closed equity: $13.67
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

A Happy Birthday kick in the nads...

2009-12-01T07:10:00.001-05:00

Markets are merciless! USD/CAD fell out of bed after an announcement by those evil monetary charlatans at the Bank of Japan. (Japan's version of the equally evil Fed.)

Previous equity: $ 15.95
Change: -$2.28
% Change: -14.29%

Current closed equity: $13.67
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2009-11-30T07:14:00.001-05:00

...in fact, since ~2:15 Sunday afternoon. The trade went from nicely profitable, to nearly being stopped out, and now back to just over breakeven. Who knows what will happen next...

Current closed equity: $15.95
Current open equity: $16.01
Current position: Long 478 USD/CAD from 1.0580
Current exposure: 50 pips, $2.39 or 14.98% of current closed equity ($15.95)

Scratch Swissie....

2009-11-27T10:37:00.000-05:00

Since the USD has had a pretty violent reversal over the past day, I've decided to scratch the USD/CHF order, and move the USD/CAD order to a place where it might actually get hit...

Pending order 1: Long 478 USD/CAD at 1.0580
Initial stop: 1.0530

Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.39 or 14.98% of current closed equity ($15.95)

Current closed equity: $15.95
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up another...

2009-11-26T10:11:00.000-05:00

Looking to get long USD/CHF if we can get down closer to the recent low. Whichever order triggers first, I'll cancel the other.

Pending order 1: Long 478 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Initial stop: 1.0375
Pending order 2: Long 478 USD/CHF at 0.9960
Initial stop: 0.9910
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.39 or 14.98% of current closed equity ($15.95)

Current closed equity: $15.95
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up....

2009-11-25T08:10:00.000-05:00

Getting long USD/CAD if we can get a little lower.

Pending order 1: Long 478 USD/CAD at 1.0425
Initial stop: 1.0375
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.39 or 14.98% of current closed equity ($15.95)

Current closed equity: $15.95
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Oh, the pain...

2009-11-25T07:57:00.000-05:00

Uncle Sam's funny paper once again dashes the hopes of the people who try to hold it....
I am totally considering trying it again, this time against the Loonie.

Previous equity: $ 18.71
Change: -$2.76
% Change: -14.75%

Current closed equity: $15.95
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Back in...

2009-11-23T06:58:00.000-05:00

Order 1 triggered. Go Greenback!

Current closed equity: $18.71
Current open equity: $18.64
Current position: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0096
Current exposure: 50 pips, $2.82 or 15.07% of current closed equity ($18.71)

Back out...

2009-11-23T05:42:00.000-05:00

Stop got hit again. Resetting...

Pending order 1: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0096
Pending order 2: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0036
Initial stop: 1.0046/0.9986
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.82 or 15.07% of current closed equity ($18.71)

Current closed equity: $18.71
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free trade!

2009-11-20T07:22:00.000-05:00

USD/CHF has broken nicely higher this morning. I'm thinking we've seen the turn, but one never knows...

Current closed equity: $18.74
Current open equity: $24.67
Current position: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0096
Current exposure: 0

Back in...

2009-11-18T12:32:00.000-05:00

Order 1 triggered. Go Greenback!

Current closed equity: $18.75
Current open equity: $18.80
Current position: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0096
Current exposure: 50 pips, $2.82 or 15.04% of current closed equity ($18.75)

Grrr!

2009-11-18T11:14:00.000-05:00

The stop got hit about 5 minutes ago. I think the $ is still bottoming here, but it's taking its good old time! I'm setting up to get long this pair again at either $1.0096 or at $1.0040, whichever gets hit first. 50 point stop in each case. I will cancel the order that doesn't get hit.

Pending order 1: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0096
Pending order 2: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0040
Initial stop: 1.0046/0.9990
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $2.82 or 15.04% of current closed equity ($18.75)

Current closed equity: $18.75
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop to breakeven

2009-11-17T13:58:00.000-05:00

USD/CHF has rallied nicely into the $1.02 area but is now pulling back. I'd prefer to see a nicer close on the 4hr chart, but I'm moving the stop to b/e anyway after having a profit 2.5x the original risk. If the stop does get taken out in a retracement, I can always re-enter at a better price.

Current open equity: $23.61
Starting equity: $18.77
Current position: Long 550 USD/CHF at 1.0081
Current exposure: 0

Whew! That was one hell of a break!

2009-11-13T07:15:00.000-05:00

I'm starting up this blog once again.... It's been a long and very interesting few months. Part of what was going on was my need to pull most of the money out of my trading account to use for other purposes. I haven't taken much more than a couple of weeks off from trading in this past 11 months, but my efforts weren't part of a specific trading campaign. I consider those efforts to be my way of staying involved in the markets and keeping my skills fresh.

I am going to leave the equity curve charting alone for now. Those charts actually take a good deal of time to create, and I have plenty of other things to focus on. As for how I will report results... well, we'll see how it goes. I'm sure something nice will grow organically.

Currently the Rollercoaster Account stands at $18.80 in closed equity. The main goal is naturally still (cue Dr. Evil) One Million Dollars. The next equity milestone, however, is $51.16, which represents the 3rd doubling since I re-initiated the campaign. Only 15 additional doublings from there will put me well over the $1million mark. I am Long 550 units of the USD/CHF pair from 1.0081, with a stop at 1.0031 representing $2.82 or 15% of equity. The trade was nearly stopped out on Wednesday, but has since rebounded and is sporting a nice 60 pip profit as of this moment. I'll move the stop to breakeven once I've got 100 pips in the trade. We almost got there yesterday.

That's all for now...

I haven't forgotten

2009-01-24T08:32:00.002-05:00

I've been terribly busy in my other business as well as keeping up with trading... so updating this blog got sacrificed. I'm in the process of designing and testing a new trading strategy... one which I may apply to this account, which is currently short USD/JPY and sitting around $30 in equity... wow, talk about a drawdown! But, I knew such was possible when I started this game.
Anyway, updates will resume again someday soon... I may do less with the graphing, since that graphic isn't exactly easy to make each day.

Year end...

2008-12-31T16:27:00.002-05:00

I have actually been trading this account for the last few days... even though I haven't been updating this site. It hasn't been going that well... but it isn't anything out of the ordinary. Now, here are some predictions for the coming year, which I'll review this time next year.

1) Both the Euro and British Pound will trade at parity with the US Dollar.

2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will trade in the 5,000s.

3) There will be a domestic attempt on the life of a high ranking Federal official. (Cabinet level or higher.)

4) The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will both escalate and become increasingly unpopular.

5) The Obama administration will attempt a New Deal 2.0, which will be a larger and more destructive unacknowledged failure than the first one.

6) Americans will largely remain as stupid and apathetic as ever.

7) I will achieve a new equity high in this account and in my others.

Happy New Year!

(I will restart regular updates on Monday, January 5th.)

Perhaps the 3rd time will be a charm...

2008-12-22T11:16:00.002-05:00

...or not. Who knows? Trade triggered. Producing profits so far.

Current open equity: $76.06
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,370 EUR/USD at 1.4024 (avg.)
Current exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Yet another kick in the crotch

2008-12-22T09:05:00.002-05:00

EUR failed to stay down. Setting up again, this time wider.

Pending order: Short 1,662 EUR/USD at 1.3958
Initial stop: 1.4031
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $10.46 or 15.00% of current closed equity ($69.79)

Current open equity: $70.35
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 0

This trade hasn't been easy....

2008-12-22T07:19:00.002-05:00

I got knocked off the stack trade over the weekend, and nearly got stopped out of the whole position. EUR has come back down, and I've re-entered another short to try and stack on more size again. That trade started out well, then turned and nearly stopped out, and now is on it's way back to profits. Wild times indeed.

Entry on new stack trade: Short 1,322 EUR/USD at 1.3970
Stop: 1.4022

Current open equity: $79.09
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 2,030 EUR/USD at 1.4043 (avg)
Current exposure: $7.00 or 53.89% of open profit at risk

Whole trade now risk-free.

2008-12-19T09:22:00.001-05:00

Moved stop to entry point on main position.

Current open equity: $84.44
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: 0

Success!

2008-12-19T07:06:00.001-05:00

The stack trade is now risk free.

Current open equity: $82.45
Starting equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,276 EUR/USD at 1.4096 (avg)
Current exposure: $9.56 or 15.00% of starting equity

Stack on

2008-12-19T06:42:00.001-05:00

The trade is triggered and looks like shit so far.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 1,844 EUR/USD at 1.4064 (avg)
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Stack attempt

2008-12-19T06:30:00.002-05:00

Having broken down heavily, EUR is consolidatin around 1.40. If it should break the lows of the last 2 30-minute bars, I'm going to go short and hopefully get some more size into this trade. I'm keeping it close... only 44 pips at risk and $5, which represents a little less than half the open profit.

Pending order (2): Short 1,136 EUR/USD at 1.3992
Pending order (3): Long 568 EUR/USD at 1.3948
Initial stop: 1.4036
Initial exposure: 44 pips, $5.00 or 37.57% of open profits.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Trade triggered

2008-12-19T06:11:00.002-05:00

I got stopped in at around 4 am, and the trade started producing profits right away. If the opportunity to get more size on comes along, I'll be taking it. Also, I know that I haven't updated the chart on the top of the screen for a couple of days. I've been designing a strategy for another account for the past couple of days, but I will get to it.

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Current exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

New idea

2008-12-18T13:06:00.002-05:00

Scratched the Aussie trade entry. Setting up to short the Euro if it breaks the day's low instead.

Pending order (1): Short 708 EUR/USD at 1.4180
Initial stop: 1.4315
Initial exposure: 135 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up yet again...

2008-12-18T11:36:00.002-05:00

Long if this hour's high breaks. Getting close to this drawdown exceeding the largest one to date. There are going to be lots of these on the way. When will this one end? We'll see...

Pending order (1): Long 1,292 at 0.7072
Initial stop: 0.6998
Initial exposure: 74 pips, $9.56 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And again...

2008-12-18T11:31:00.001-05:00

Whacked again. Setting up again right after I log this...

Previous equity: $74.91
Change: -$11.22
% Change: -14.98%

Current closed equity: $63.69
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2008-12-18T09:22:00.001-05:00

Here we go again...

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Current exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Reposition

2008-12-18T09:11:00.001-05:00

Lowering all prices by 44 pips to play off a break of this hour's high instead.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7065
Initial stop: 0.7005
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Set 'em up again...

2008-12-18T08:16:00.002-05:00

This time the trigger is last hour's high on Oz.

Pending order (1): Long 1,872 AUD/USD at 0.7109
Initial stop: 0.7049
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $11.23 or 14.99%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Another one bites the dust...

2008-12-18T08:07:00.002-05:00

Stopped out. I'll set this pair up again as soon as I finish logging this one...

Previous equity: $88.13
Change: -$13.22
% Change: -15.00%

Current closed equity: $74.91
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2008-12-18T07:24:00.000-05:00

Ok, here we go... let the losing begin!

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Current exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Next idea...

2008-12-18T06:31:00.002-05:00

Oz has formed an inside bar on the hourly chart. If the top of it is broken, I will be long.

Pending order (1): Long 2,874 AUD/USD at 0.7102
Initial stop: 0.7056
Initial exposure: 46 pips, $13.22 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade off.

2008-12-18T06:13:00.002-05:00

JPY, after having broken down nicely and nearly hit the point where I would have moved my stop, turned around and took me out. i guess the drawdown was not over yet. No matter. Next trade...

Previous equity: $103.73
Change: -$15.60
% Change: -15.04%

Current closed equity: $88.13
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2008-12-17T09:30:00.002-05:00

USD/JPY took out the day's low, and the trade has started off producing profits right away. That's what I like to see. I'll now be looking for an opportunity to move the stop to breakeven if I don't get stopped out first.

Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: Short 2,128 USD/JPY at 88.27
Current exposure: 65 pips, $15.60 or 15.04%

Next idea...

2008-12-17T07:53:00.002-05:00

The next idea is to short the USD against the JPY. If this hour's low gets taken out, it should mark a good place to get in. This hour's high marks a good place to get out if I'm wrong.

Pending order (1): Short 2,128 USD/JPY at 88.27
Initial stop: 88.92
Initial exposure: 65 pips, $15.60 or 15.04%

Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratched out

2008-12-17T07:38:00.002-05:00

Now that the US Dollar is the big joke currency instead of the Yen, this old GBP/JPY carry trade just ain't what it used to be. Stopped out after having been up nearly 400 pips. One more in the long, frustrating series of whacks. Such is the nature of trading. The next idea will be forthcoming.

Current closed equity: $103.73
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Nice start to the week...

2008-12-15T09:54:00.002-05:00

GBP/JPY has burst higher this morning. This trade is up by over 300 pips, so it's a great time to move the stop to breakeven. This is a wild pair, so I dare not trail it too closely. Even 300 seems a little tight, but I think it should be ok. If not... scratches are a-ok. I can survive any number of those.

Here's where another aspect of discipline comes in. I could take the profit now, which would put my trading back into positive-expectancy status. I won't do it, because my objective is to make money... not to make pretty statistics. Letting winners run is often harder than cutting losses short. This whole deal is just a giant psychological minefield! Tread cautiously...

Current open equity: $143.21
Starting equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 0

On the ugliness of certain numbers

2008-12-12T11:49:00.004-05:00

This last closed trade has taken my results to a negative historical expectancy. I do not have any reason to believe this will be a permanent condition. I also had no reason to believe my expectancy would remain at 0.63% per trade a few weeks ago. I do expect the results to converge on some number and become more stable as more trades are put into the sample. I haven't changed my approach between the end of November and now... the markets have simply been choppier, making breakout trading an unprofitable endeavor. When this rather spectacular drawdown will end is anybody's guess, but I am confident it will end eventually and I will trade back to new equity highs. Anyone who doubts that is welcome to fade me... fading me has certainly been a profitable strategy this week!

Current open equity: $107.95
Starting equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Trade on!

2008-12-12T08:52:00.001-05:00

I'm somewhat surprised it didn't happen during the PPI release... but then nothing should surprise me in these markets!

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Current exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Repositioning

2008-12-12T08:03:00.001-05:00

Consolidation has continued for a couple of hours, and this has allowed for a smaller pip risk. Here's the new order:

Pending order (2): Long 1,444 GBP/JPY at 135.36
Initial stop: 134.39
Initial exposure: 97 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New idea

2008-12-12T06:34:00.003-05:00

Since the inside bar on USD/JPY didn't break to the downside, I've scratched that order and come up with another bad idea... long GBP/JPY. That's the first shot at that pair in this account. It's crazy wild volatile... just like my equity curve.

Pending order (1): Long 1,056 GBP/JPY at 135.42
Initial stop: 134.09
Initial exposure: 133 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea...

2008-12-12T01:41:00.002-05:00

An hourly inside bar has formed on USD/JPY, and I'm set up to short the break of it.

Pending order (1): Short 2,000 USD/JPY at 89.24
Initial stop: 89.93
Initial exposure: 69 pips, $15.52 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

How do you spell frustration?

2008-12-12T01:00:00.002-05:00

Right now, it is spelled AUD/USD. This pair was up huge yesterday, and now it... isn't. One of the many dangers of going for the big move. Stopped out at 11:11 pm. Now that I look, I see USD/JPY down big... I wonder what awful thing happened in Asia? Perhaps there is a new idea there...

Previous equity: $121.70
Change: -$18.18
%Change: -14.94%

This most recent loss takes my historical trading results to a negative expectancy... now the $1 million goal is out of reach. I am undeterred.

Current closed equity: $103.52
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Got it!

2008-12-11T07:57:00.003-05:00

For better or worse, I got the additional size on at the same price.

Current closed equity: $121.70
Current position: Long 2,282 AUD/USD at 0.6648
Current exposure: 80 pips, $18.26 or 15.00%

Still another on the loss pile

2008-12-11T06:56:00.002-05:00

Got stopped in around 2:30 am, and stopped right back out around 3:30. The next loss could take me down to 'negative expectancy'. Not that I believe my trading really has negative expectancy over the long haul, but it will make some of my calculations blow up until I book a few winners.

Previous equity: $143.16
Change: -$21.46
% Change: -14.99%

Not being one to take it lying down, I went ahead and took another shot at the long side of Oz and it got triggered before I could log it. On this one, I may just move the stop to breakeven if I get the amount I risked in profits, so for now there is no pending order to sell 1/2 the position. In my haste to get the orders in, I made a miscalculation and took slightly too small a position. If I get the chance, I'll put on the rest so this trade can be the same as all the others.

Entry: 0.6648
Initial stop: 0.6568
Initial exposure: 80 pips, $14.61 or 12.00%
Pending order: Long 456 AUD/USD at 0.6648 (to make the size the full 15%)

Current closed equity: $121.70
Current position: Long 1,826 AUD/USD at 0.6648
Current exposure: 80 pips, $14.61 or 12.00%

Next idea...

2008-12-11T01:58:00.002-05:00

Trying for long Oz again.

Pending order (1): Long 3,408 AUD/USD at 0.6641
Pending order (2): Short 1,704 AUD/USD at 0.6704
Initial stop: 0.6578
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $21.47 or 15.00%

Incidentally, the current equity level represents a 70% drawdown from the highest point I've seen in this account ($467). That's the price of going for really big returns, and it may not be over yet. How long until a new equity high is anybody's guess. On the bright side, I'm still up 28.68% in the account since inception, and up 679.74% from the all time lows at $18.36.

Current closed equity: $143.16
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the loss pile

2008-12-11T01:40:00.002-05:00

Stopped out.

Previous equity: $168.51
Change: -$25.35
% Change: -15.04%

Current closed equity: $143.16
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Too fast too log again...

2008-12-10T14:28:00.002-05:00

Set up to short GBP, and the order triggered before I could log it! Just a break of a 4-hr inside bar.

Pending order (2): Long 1,620 GBP/USD at 1.4685
Stop on 1st leg: 1.4841

Current closed equity: $168.51
Current position: Short 3,240 GBP/USD from 1.4763
Current exposure: 78 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Knocked off yet again

2008-12-10T14:13:00.001-05:00

It's a business of never-ending frustration. Oz fell back and took out the stop.

Current closed equity: $168.51
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Additional stats...

2008-12-10T11:42:00.002-05:00

Risk free!

2008-12-10T10:33:00.003-05:00

It actually happened while I was typing the last post. Will there be a place to stack on another long? Time will tell...

Current open equity: $193.40
Starting equity: $168.48
Current position: Long 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Current exposure: 0

Trade on...

2008-12-10T10:29:00.002-05:00

Trade was triggered about 20 minutes ago. It definitely started producing gains right away, and has nearly made it to the risk-free point. That's how I like to see them, but anything can happen in these markets!

Pending order (2): Short 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6631

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: Long 7,896 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Current exposure: 32 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Repositioning

2008-12-10T06:28:00.002-05:00

Since Oz has wound itself into a tight little range, I can lower the risk in pips and raise the size for the same dollar risk. Of course, it is also easier to get stopped out, but life is a series of tradeoffs...

Pending order (1): Long 7,896 AUD/USD at 0.6599
Pending order (2): Short 3,948 AUD/USD at 0.6631
Initial Stop: 0.6567
Initial Exposure: 32 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea...

2008-12-10T01:14:00.002-05:00

Long AUD/USD.

Pending order (1): Long 3,462 AUD/USD at 0.6646
Pending order (2): Short 1,731 AUD/USD at 0.6719
Initial Stop: 0.6573
Initial Exposure: 73 pips, $25.27 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Knocked out again...

2008-12-09T17:46:00.002-05:00

Stopped out. Not much to say or do but log it and move on... A new idea will likely present itself in the morning.

Previous equity: $198.00
Change: -$29.52
% Change: -14.91%

Current closed equity: $168.48
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Additional stats...

2008-12-09T11:05:00.001-05:00

Trade triggered

2008-12-09T10:52:00.001-05:00

EUR/JPY decided to get up and go someplace... sure looked like it was going to sit below its open all day. Trade not winning any prizes so far...

Pending order(2): Short 1,837 EUR/JPY at 120.24

Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: Long 3,674 EUR/JPY at 119.50
Current exposure: 74 pips, $29.70 or 15.00%

And the idea is...

2008-12-09T06:42:00.003-05:00

...if EUR/JPY gets back above last hour's high, I am a buyer with a stop at this hour's low.

Pending order(1): Long 3,674 EUR/JPY at 119.50
Pending order(2): Short 1,837 EUR/JPY at 120.24
Initial stop: 118.76
Initial exposure: 74 pips, $29.70 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Not the move.

2008-12-09T06:23:00.002-05:00

GBP fell back and took out the stop again. I got a couple of pennies for carry, but there's not much point in calculating a return there... we'll just call it a scratch. In search of the next idea...

Current closed equity: $198.00
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Some additional stats...

2008-12-08T18:01:00.002-05:00

Risk free!

2008-12-08T15:01:00.001-05:00

Risk free point just hit. Will look for a place to stack on another leg if the opportunity presents itself.

Current open equity: $228.76
Starting equity: $197.98
Current position: Long 1,832 GBP/USD at 1.4862
Current exposure: 0

Stopped in a bit early

2008-12-08T11:00:00.002-05:00

It's sometimes not easy to catch the very break of an hourly 'inside bar' since sometimes the bar closes and breaks a few seconds later without retracing. I got in this one a couple minutes early. That ought not matter much over the long haul, but I thought it was worth a mention.

Pending order (2): Short 1,832 GBP/USD at 1.4943
Initial stop: 1.4781

Current closed equity: $197.98
Current position: Long 3,664 GBP/USD at 1.4862
Current exposure: 81 pips, $29.68 or 15.00%

Knocked out on the rest.

2008-12-08T09:58:00.002-05:00

Bummer. GBP fell back and took out the stop on the main position. Well... it could have been the 5th loss in a row, and a small win is better than that.

Previous equity: $184.06
Change: +$13.92
% Change: +7.56%

Current closed equity: $197.98
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Failed stack attempt

2008-12-08T09:21:00.002-05:00

I just tried stacking on another long leg at the topside break of this hour's inside bar. The result was a quick stop-out. I'm leaving the stop on the main position where it is, so I still have a win locked in. I only risked 1/2 the locked in profit on the stack.

Entry: 1.4894
Exit: 1.4836
-58 pips on 2,378 units of GBP/USD

Current open equity: $202.59
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: Locked in +$13.80 or 7.5% of starting equity

Nice start to the week!

2008-12-08T06:12:00.002-05:00

GBP has launched through the 1.50 level, taking this trade as high as +350 pips. It has since backed off, but that is to be expected. Moving the stop to lock in 100.

Current open equity: $242.32
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: Locked in +100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00% of starting equity

Not a loss...

2008-12-08T01:30:00.002-05:00

GBP has managed to stay above my stop and move higher as well. I've moved the stop to the entry, since I have as much as open profit as I originally risked.

Current open equity: $224.14
Starting equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: 0

Here we go again...

2008-12-05T14:35:00.002-05:00

...we shall see whether it's 5 in a row, or whether I get a break this time 'round. Doesn't matter of course... not in the long run anyway. (Oh, and bite me, Keynes and Keynesians while I'm thinking about the long run!)

Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Current exposure: 100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00%

Trying an additional visual...

2008-12-05T11:57:00.002-05:00

I want to find someplace on the page to put this... I may have to change templates to make it work.

Next idea....

2008-12-05T08:51:00.002-05:00

Well, NFP is out, and the pairs are flailing about. I can't imagine the number was pretty. GBP has broken down, however, if the high of this hour gets taken out, it could signal a reversal and blow up the shorts who have been having a great time in this pair all week...

Pending order (1): Long 2,760 GBP/USD at 1.4695
Initial stop: 1.4595
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $27.60 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whack-ola!

2008-12-05T08:17:00.002-05:00

That makes for the 4th loss in a row. Not the least bit unusual... but according to Van Tharp, most people tend to only be able to tolerate 3 losses in a row. Well... I am not most people. I've already proven that I can take 13 losses in a row and still take the next trade, so let's go! (I don't have a new idea yet, and NFP is 10 minutes away... something will come to me though. It always does eventually.)

Previous equity: $216.22
Change: -$32.16
% Change: -14.87%

Current closed equity: $184.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

On the move...

2008-12-03T17:12:00.003-05:00

... just like BP. Well, maybe we'll get lucky and do better than BP, which is at 5 year lows! Anyway, the trade is triggered and has broken nicely in my favor right from the get-go. A good sign, but a 4th consecutive loss is by no means out of the question. If I've drawn another black marble out of the bag, those are the breaks and I can do nothing but thake the next trade, and the next, and the next...

Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: Long 3,244 AUD/USD at 0.6490
Current exposure: 100 pips, $32.44 or 15.00%

Glutton for punishment

2008-12-03T16:22:00.002-05:00

Looks like I may get another shot at long the Aussie. Yeah, it didn't turn out so great last time, but I have no memory when I make a trade, just like a flipped coin.

Pending order (1): Long 3,244 AUD/USD at 0.6490
Initial stop: 0.6390
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $32.44 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

If it didn't feel like torture...

2008-12-03T16:01:00.002-05:00

...we'd all be millionaires. I guess it's just my day to see if I'll break. I won't. Next trade is full size, just like the last one, and every one I ever take. I don't know if there is another idea just yet, since it is late and spreads have widened. We'll see.

Previous equity: $254.46
Change: -$38.24
% Change: 15.03%

Current closed equity: $216.22
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Happened so fast...

2008-12-03T13:52:00.002-05:00

... that I couldn't log the setup before the trade was on! The idea was to short the EUR/USD at the low of a prior inside bar. I gave it a few pips extra to run also, since 60 seemed about the minimum distance I wanted to trail. Now I'm in and the pending order is thus:

Pending order (2): Long 3,181 EUR/USD at 1.2596
Initial stop: 1.2716
Initial exposure: 60 pips, $38.17 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $254.46
Current position: Short 6,362 EUR/USD at 1.2656
Current exposure: 60 pips, $38.17 or 15.00%

Just $5,799,955.15 to go!

2008-12-03T13:34:00.002-05:00

That trade got taken out pretty fast... that's how this game goes. Not sure where the next setup is, but I'm sure I'll think of something.

Previous equity: $299.31
Change: -$44.85
% Change: -14.98%

Current closed equity: $254.46
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Here we go already!

2008-12-03T11:21:00.001-05:00

Trade just triggered. Let the losses begin!

Pending order (2): Short 3,401 AUD/USD at 0.6549

Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: Long 6,802 AUD/USD at 0.6483
Current exposure: 66 pips, $44.89 or 15.00%

No rest...

2008-12-03T11:12:00.002-05:00

New plan: Long Aussie. One of the chief reasons is because I feel like we should be going down... so we'll probably go the other way!

Pending order (1): Long 6,802 AUD/USD at 0.6483
Pending order (2): Short 3,401 AUD/USD at 0.6549
Initial stop: 0.6417
Initial exposure: 66 pips, $44.89 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the scratch pile

2008-12-03T11:00:00.002-05:00

Well, I tried it and it failed. We'll see what the next setup brings. I don't know if I'll fade this pair again, or what. Time will reveal...

Current closed equity: $299.31
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free, but differently...

2008-12-03T09:54:00.003-05:00

I decided to pull the pending order and move the stop down to the entry on this order. That will give me a bigger win if this baby really breaks down, as I think it might. The trade had been chopping around and basically avoided triggering the pending order for so long that I started to wonder if it would ever happen! Now we've fallen through that price, and I think there should be enough momentum to keep it from retracing back to the entry, but who knows... it's not any more risk in dollars, so let's go for it, shall we?

Current open equity: $344.99
Starting equity: $299.55
Current position: Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

2008-12-02T14:17:00.002-05:00

Just stopped into the trade. Looked good for a few minutes... not so hot just now, but it doesn't really matter when you need to take 1000 losses or more along the way.

Pending order (2): Long 3,800 USD/JPY at 92.63

Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Current exposure: 55 pips, $44.93 or 15.00%

Next idea....

2008-12-02T09:12:00.002-05:00

If the USD/JPY falls beneath today's open, I'm a seller.

Pending order (1): Short 7,600 USD/JPY at 93.18
Pending order (2): Long 3,800 USD/JPY at 92.63
Initial stop: 93.73
Initial exposure: 55 pips, $44.93 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Finally!

2008-12-02T08:37:00.004-05:00

The market finally let me out of that shitty trade! One down, 1300 or so to go. Not sure what the next setup is yet.

Current closed equity: $299.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free.

2008-12-01T13:26:00.002-05:00

Yow! That was one uuuuugly trade. Could have been worse, and honestly I don't expect much more from it. Hey, at least it was not a loss. If something good happens, I'll look into adding to the position.

Current open equity: $334.04
Starting equity: $299.85
Current position: Short 2,975 EUR/JPY at 118.24
Current exposure: 0