Locking still more

After today's action having traced out an 'inside day', the low of the day gives me a good place to move my stop. I definitely want to avoid trailing too closely, and I'm leaving a few pips for holiday-widened spreads; however, a break of a low of an inside day is likely to lead to further weakness, so that's where I'll stop out.

Current open equity: $392.10
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $61.01 or 21.00% of starting equity.

More locked.

We've just gone charging through yesterday's high after having retraced almost to the stop overnight. This is a good place to go ahead and move the stop up to the point that locks in a profit that is the same size as the original risk... 1R as Van Tharp calls it. If we get a consolidation pattern around these levels, it will be a good place to try stacking on an additional long. We shall see...

Current open equity: $422.97
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $43.58 or 15.00% of starting equity.

Lock time.

Now that the trade has been up by nearly 3 times the amount of pips originally at risk, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry point.

Current open equity: $364.50
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: Locked in $21.79 or 7.5% of starting equity.

Risk free in 90 minutes

Nice way to start off the trading week. Let's see how long this one lasts.

Current open equity: $337.82
Starting equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Here we go...


Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376


Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Current exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%

DIBS on Oz

Simple inside bar setup on Aussie.

Pending order (1): Long 7,644 AUD/USD at 0.6319
Pending order (2): Short 3,822 AUD/USD at 0.6376
Initial stop: 0.6262
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $43.57 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out in Sunday Slop

Friday's action was just dandy up until the last couple of hours. Those are the breaks. Call it the Geithner rally. Of course all that news really means to me is that I know I'll be saying 'That worthless SOB Geithner' for the next couple of years.

Previous equity: $269.56
Change: +$20.93
%Change: +7.76%


Current closed equity: $290.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whoa!

The Pound has broken down very nicely in the last few minutes. Now that I'm up 2x the amount of pips I risked, it makes sense to go ahead and move the stop to the entry. No sense in letting this big of a winner turn into a scratch.

Current open equity: $350.50
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: Locked in +$21.65 or +7.5% of Starting equity

Quite the nail-biter!

I generally prefer not to short pairs that are up significantly on the day, but sometimes it works out. Again, entries are not all that important anyway. This trade was very nearly stopped out at about 8:30 this morning, but it has now reached the risk-free point. You just never know what color marble you'll be drawing from the bag. At least I'm sure that this one isn't a loser.

Current open equity: $318.96
Starting equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 0

New new plan in effect

Here we go!


Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885


Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Current exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

New new plan

Scratch the Aussie idea. GBP has drawn a 'pin bar' pattern on the hourly chart, and I'm playing that instead.

Pending order (1): Short 4,768 GBP/USD at 1.4976
Pending order (2): Long 2,384 GBP/USD at 1.4885
Initial stop: 1.5067
Initial exposure: 91 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

New plan

Trying a long play in Aussie. Not really a DIBS play, but close enough... entries aren't really that important.

Pending order (1): Long 7,486 AUD/USD at 0.6283
Pending order (2): Short 3,743 AUD/USD at 0.6337
Initial stop: 0.6229
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratch that idea

USD/JPY is moving higher, and while a reversal is certainly possible, there is probably some other kind of trouble out there to get into. Canceled pending orders.

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea....

If USD/JPY takes out this hour's low, I'm selling it.

Pending order (1): Short 8,086 USD/JPY at 94.68
Pending order (2): Long 4,043 USD/JPY at 94.18
Initial stop: 95.18
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $43.40 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

I knew it would happen

At least, I had a pretty good idea. If I *knew* I would have closed the trade before it got stopped out for another breakeven. Next setup...

Current closed equity: $269.56
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Umph..

Well, they sure made me sweat for it, with price diddling about within 2 or 3 pips of my trigger price for about 25 minutes... but I am finally risk-free in this trade.

Current open equity: $314.53
Starting equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 0

I'm in.

Not looking so great so far, but hey... what do I know?


Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741


Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Current exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Reposition again

A NEW, new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.

Pending order (1): Short 8,256 GBP/USD at 1.4790
Pending order (2): Long 4,128 GBP/USD at 1.4741
Initial stop: 1.4839
Initial exposure: 49 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Reposition

A new inside bar has formed on the hourly chart, and I'm going to use that one as the setup instead.

Pending order (1): Short 6,322 GBP/USD at 1.4778
Pending order (2): Long 3,161 GBP/USD at 1.4714
Initial stop: 1.4842
Initial exposure: 64 pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea

DIBS on GBP is my best idea for now. I really don't like shorting AUD because the carry is still too high, and that was my other potential idea.

Pending order (1): Short 7,356 GBP/USD at 1.4749
Pending order (2): Long 3,678 GBP/USD at 1.4694
Initial stop: 1.4804
Initial exposure: 55pips, $40.46 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Oh well.

It's just one frustrating kick to the groin after another, isn't it? Stopped out. Taking these whacks is what I get paid to do, no matter how awful it feels. The next setup awaits...

Previous equity: $222.32
Change: +$47.46
%Change: +21.35%


Current closed equity: $269.78
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved again

Locking in some more with a stop just above the recent hourly highs.

Current open equity: $339.07
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$46.36 or +20.85%

Stop moved

Wow, this baby has really started to break down in earnest. I'm up over 140 pips so far.

Current open equity: $301.92
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$33.35 or +15.00%

Risk free and some locked in

With equities having broken down and closed at a new low, this trade seems to be working pretty well. It has been up by 95 pips, but I've moved my stop just down to the entry point. I want to try and avoid killing the trade by trailing too closely.

Current open equity: $275.55
Starting equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: Locked in +$17.32 or +7.79%

Too fast to log it!

DIBS setup on JPY taken.

Pending order (2): Long 4,275 USD/JPY at 96.24


Current closed equity: $222.32
Current position: Short 8,550 USD/JPY at 96.63
Current exposure: 39 pips, $33.35 or 15.00%

This one got a little complicated

This pair broke way higher, and has since reversed hard... thinking about shorting it now, but that's another post. When the pair hit the pending order, apparently the spread was so high that OANDA canceled the order. This has happened before. Sometimes errors like this inure to my benefit, and this was one of those times. I'll take it, but I'd rather have perfect execution on my part than have luck occasionally drop a few pips in my pocket. Since I closed 1/2 the position at 1.2740 instead of the planned 1.2713, this setup resulted in a win instead of a breakeven.

Previous equity: $215.23
Change: +$7.09
% Change: +3.29%

Current closed equity: $222.32
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ok, I'm in

On the long side. Not winning any beauty contests so far, but I'll give it some time.



Pending order (2): Short 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2713




Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: Long 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2651
Current exposure: 62 pips, $32.28 or 15.00%

Hello old friend

I haven't taken a setup in EUR/USD for a long time. Here's the plan:

Pending order (1): Long 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2651
Pending order (2): Short 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2713
Pending order (3): Short 5,206 EUR/USD at 1.2589
Pending order (4): Long 2,603 EUR/USD at 1.2527
If order 1 is triggered, cancel 3 & 4.
If order 3 is triggered, cancel 1 & 2.
Initial stop: (1) 1.2589 (3) 1.2651
Initial exposure: 62 pips, $32.28 or 15.00%


Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped in at 5:06

Stopped out at 5:14! I guess that wasn't such a great idea after all... The next move may be a long, but I don't know until I get a look around.

Previous equity: $239.09
Change: -$23.86
% Change: -9.98%

Current closed equity: $215.23
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next idea....

GBP has presented a very low-risk entry point by winding itself into a tight range overnight.... perhaps the tightest we've seen in weeks. Here's the plan:

Pending order (1): Short 7,950 GBP/USD at 1.4936
Pending order (2): Long 3,975 GBP/USD at 1.4906
Initial stop: 1.4966
Initial exposure: 30 pips, $23.85 or 9.98%

I would have risked the usual 15%, but my broker doesn't offer enough leverage for me to do that! The nice thing is that we should know very quickly if this works...

Current closed equity: $239.09
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Nailed yet again

Just got stopped out of this ill-fated long. Not sure what the next move is. This has been a deadly boring little while with everything chopping around in ranges the last few days.

Previous equity: $281.18
Change: -$42.09
% Change: -14.97%

Current closed equity: $239.09
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade on at 2:34 am

I got stopped in, and after a nice move higher, the pair reversed and made for my stop. It has recently turned yet again and is sitting near breakeven at a small loss.


Pending order (2): Short 2,027 GBP/USD at 1.5140


Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: Long 4,054 GBP/USD at 1.5036
Current exposure: 104 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Long GBP this time?

This is the best I can come up with for now.

Pending order (1): Long 4,054 GBP/USD at 1.5036
Pending order (2): Short 2,027 GBP/USD at 1.5140
Initial stop: 1.4932
Initial exposure: 104 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Just can't hold this turd!

Stopped out again... at least for breakeven plus a few pennies for carry. I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Current closed equity: $281.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Risk free, Baby!

Risk-free point just hit about 10 minutes ago. Will it be a trade I can hold for awhile? Who knows... it's not a bad start though. Maybe there will be some stacking too...

Current open equity: $317.84
Starting equity: $281.05
Current position: Long 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Current exposure: 0

Execution phase begins

Trade was triggered about 30 minutes ago. Not winning any prizes so far, but that isn't at all unusual.


Pending order (2): Short 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6582

Current open equity: $254.97
Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: Long 7,954 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Current exposure: 53 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Next plan

Oz looks like it may be pulling back in the context of an uptrend. If it clears this hour's high, I'm a buyer.

Pending order (1): Long 7,954 AUD/USD at 0.6529
Pending order (2): Short 3,977 AUD/USD at 0.6582
Initial stop: 0.6476
Initial exposure: 53 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scratch orders

GBP is breaking higher, and I don't want to wait for it to possibly reverse. Looking to set up for a long in Aussie instead.

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Pile on the pound again

Looking to get short the GBP if it breaks its low of the last few hours.

Pending order(1): Short 2,990 GBP/USD at 1.4648
Pending order(2): Long 1,495 GBP/USD at 1.4507
Initial stop: 1.4789
Initial exposure: 141 pips, $42.16 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

We won't get to find out.

In one of the many frustrating twists and turns of this business, my stop got hit in this no-liquidity after-hours environment. Looks like I even paid a few pennies of slippage, since the spread was >15 pips. Nothing to do now but log it and move on. Bummer, since I was into the 3:00 hour with 85 pips in profit. At least this sudden weakness is increasing the profits in some of my other accounts.

Previous equity: $281.61
Change: -$0.56
% Change: -0.2%

Current closed equity: $281.05
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Weekend, yea!

Well, here we are in the final few minutes before liquidity seriously dries up until Asia opens on Sunday night. Here I am again holding a long position in the Aussie late on a Friday. Last time around, I didn't have a risk-free trade like I do now. I also didn't have a nice cushion of open profit. Anything can happen, but I feel much more comfortable holding this week than I did last. I gave up some profit potential by selling last week... let's see if my decision this week has a better result.

Current open equity: $320.42
Starting equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 0

Risk free trade achieved

The risk-free point was hit just before 10am. If we see some higher prices, this may be a good trade to hold over the weekend. We'll see.

Current open equity: $316.43
Starting equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 0

Trade on!

For better or worse, I just got stopped in.


Pending order (2): Short 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6633


Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: Long 6,704 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Current exposure: 63 pips, $42.24 or 15.00%

Here's my best idea

Not that it's a great idea or anything, but it's what I can come up with for now. This is a simple long breakout play based on the range of the last 3 hours. Back down under:

Pending order (1): Long 6,704 AUD/USD at 0.6570
Pending order (2): Short 3,352 AUD/USD at 0.6633
Initial stop: 0.6505
Initial exposure: 63 pips, $42.24 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

One more for the loss column

Stopped in around 1:33am, stopped out around 3am. Looking for the next setup as always.

Previous equity: $333.20
Change: -$51.59
% Change: -15.48%


Current closed equity: $281.61
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

May be a nail-biter

USD/JPY has wound itself into a pretty tight range overnight. I'm playing for a breakout higher, and I only need 40 pips to know if I'm wrong, so this position is pretty big.

Pending order(1): Long 12,494 USD/JPY at 97.29
Pending order(2): Short 6,247 USD/JPY at 97.69
Initial stop: 96.89
Initial exposure: 40 pips, $49.98 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $333.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Rats!

After having been up by over 130 pips, the stop got hit. This pair is just too volatile right now with the super important levels in equities right here. I should probably just leave it alone until things calm back down, since going long is foolish and going short is just too difficult.

Current closed equity: $333.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Short again

I just went short at 122.998, and the stop is already at breakeven. I fully expect to get taken out of this trade, but who knows...

Current closed equity: $333.21
Current position: Short 2,300 EUR/JPY at 122.998
Current exposure: 0

Whack!

While I was out gallivanting, I got stopped into and then right back out of the planned short. I'm sure I'll be setting up another one soon, but I have to look around a bit first. We do have at least a new intraday low on the S&P, which bodes well for shorting this pair again.

Previous equity: $392.43
Change: -$59.22
%Change: -15.09%

Current closed equity: $333.21
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

The plan

There is an inside bar last hour to play the downside break. Setting it up in the usual way.

Pending order(1): Short 6,750 EUR/JPY at 119.31
Pending order(2): Long 3,375 EUR/JPY at 118.47
Initial stop: 120.15
Initial exposure: 84 pips, $58.80 or 14.98%


Current closed equity: $392.43
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop hit

I guess the longs need a break from the beating they've been taking. I may just put this leg back on if the pair falls back through a low of a high bar. Or not. Maybe there is a better idea out there.

Previous equity: $296.20
Change: +$96.23
% Change: +32.49%

Current closed equity: $392.43
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Moved stop yet again

The trade is up by over 600 pips. 300 seems like a reasonable trail, considering how high volatility has gotten again.


Current open equity: $467.06 (a record!)
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $73.60 or 24.85% of starting equity

Moved stop again

EUR/JPY has broken through yesterday's low, and this trade is now up over 300 pips. Moved stop to lock in the full 100 pips at least.

Current open equity: $395.02
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $44.42 or 15.00% of starting equity

Moved stop

EUR/JPY has broken down nicely again this hour. Moved the stop to the entry point, thereby locking in at least 1/2 the amount risked on the trade.

Current open equity: $379.75
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: Locked in $22.21 or 7.5% of starting equity

Risk free!

The risk-free point was just hit about 6 minutes ago. Looking for a stackable place as always.

Current closed equity: $341.15
Starting equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 2,221 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: 0

Yow!

While I was making some toast and otherwise not looking at the markets, this trade got triggered and has nearly hit the risk-free point already!

Pending order(2): Long 2,221 EUR/JPY at 123.11

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: Short 4,442 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Current exposure: 100 pips, $44.42 or 15.00%

I like this better

EUR/JPY has drawn out a pennant over the last 14 hours or so. It could be argued that it already broke to the downside once and has since moved back into the consolidation range... but it doesn't matter that much to me, since exits are far more important than entries. Here are the orders:

Pending order(1): Short 4,442 EUR/JPY at 124.11
Pending order(2): Long 2,221 EUR/JPY at 123.11
Initial stop: 125.11
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $44.42 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Scrub mission

I've canceled the pending orders. I just don't like what I see, and I think there are more attractive opportunities in other markets.

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Repositioning

Based on the action on the 4hr chart, I'm dropping the prices in all orders by 52 pips. The risk is the same, but the low of the low bar is now lower.

Pending order(1): Long 5770 AUD/USD at 0.6708
Pending order(2): Short 2885 AUD/USD at 0.6785
Initial stop: 0.6631
Initial exposure: 77 pips, $44.43 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Having yet another go

Oz seems to have stopped falling for now. Going long if it breaches the highs of a couple hours ago. The logical stop-out point is a bit farther away this time, so the position size is smaller.

Pending order(1): Long 5770 AUD/USD at 0.6760
Pending order(2): Short 2885 AUD/USD at 0.6837
Initial stop: 0.6683
Initial exposure: 77 pips, $44.43 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $296.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And over quickly it was.

Probably done for the day, but looking for another opportunity if it should come along... not necessarily in this pair, but not ruling it out either.

Previous equity: $348.40
Change: -$52.21
% Change: -14.99%

Current closed equity: $296.19
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going again

Price dropped right into the bottom of the week's opening gap, which should provide a support level. If not, it should be over quick.

Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6785

Pending order(2): Short 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6827
Initial stop: 0.6743


Current closed equity: $348.40
Current position: Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6785
Current exposure: 42 pips, $52.22 or 15.00%

Blast!

Stop hit. At least I kept a few pennies for positive carry. Looking for the next trade is the only cure for this pain.

Current closed equity: $348.40
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

In and looking good

The trade was triggered around 2:30 am. After a brief flirtation with disaster, coming within 15 pips of the stop, the Aussie has climbed very nicely. The risk-free point was hit around 5:15 am, and now I'm looking for good places to stack on additional longs.


Current open equity: $415.56 (That's a new record!)
Starting equity: $348.19
Current position: Long 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6876
Current exposure: 0

Wake up time...

Turns out, leaving the trade on would have worked out ok. No matter... I had no way of knowing that going in. The decision was the correct one to make over time even if not in this particular instance.
Oz is looking up, and last hour formed an inside bar, so I'm playing the DIBS setup. (Appropriate stop on order 2, since I am going back to bed after hitting the 'Publish' button.)

Pending order(1): Long 12,432 AUD/USD at 0.6876
Pending order(2): Short 6,216 AUD/USD at 0.6918
Initial stop: 0.6834
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $52.22 or 15.00%

Yes, that's my biggest position yet in this account... more than 1 mini-lot, and each tick worth over $1.24. Exciting? Nah... it's just a bigger number.

Current closed equity: $348.19
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ritholtz asks... I respond.

Barry's question cast out into the aether from his fantastic blog, The Big Picture:

Open Thread: What Now?

'Ok, we have the Presidential election behind us, and ugly NFP yesterday... Market volatility still remains crazed... What is on your minds? What are you thinking about? What say ye?'

My response: (reproduced here)

Interesting question. The answer is that it’s the same set of things that have been on my mind for the past several years. Mostly, I wonder how so many people believe so many contradictory stupidities and manage to avoid killing themselves while making a bowl of Froot Loops in the morning. On the one hand, the irrationality of my fellow humans is why I trade the markets, so I have mixed feelings about a sudden mass outbreak of Reason… but then again, if man were rational in all aspects of his life, I think humans would have colonized a good deal of the Galaxy several centuries and probably millennia ago. Nevertheless, I am not the least bit hopeful (worried?) that man’s nature will change for the better in the next few years. (Ray Kurzweil thinks 2029 may be a big year in that department. I’m skeptical, but intrigued and watchful.)
I don’t know much, and the things I do know are things that most people would rather not believe. Worse, they seem willing to bear any hardship and/or inflict any misery upon others in order to avoid believing them. Chief among these unpopular beliefs, and the main one from which they all proceed is handed down from a guy much smarter than me:

One cannot say of something that it is and that it is not in the same respect and at the same time.
-Aristotle

One who truly believes this is in for no end of trouble with his fellows. It means being at irreconcilable odds with just about everyone at one time or another. Consider the sum of two and two. It is always exactly four, and most people seem to agree… until it’s time to talk about bailouts, taxes, ’spreading the wealth’, etc. Consider the slave. A person who is forced against his will to work for another is a slave, regardless of the self-serving pronouncements of some black-robed buffoon. That will be a very popular sentiment on the floor of the NYSE at 11 o’clock this Tuesday, let me tell you.

So in the coming years, I expect to continue to be endlessly fascinated and frustrated by the behavior of individuals alone and in groups. I expect to have more proof that all governments are simply large gangs of liars, thieves, and killers with legions of apologists. (Stop at any time, as I need no further proof, thank you.) I expect to see more people getting what they deserve, along with other people getting what they do not deserve, in spite of what anyone feels or thinks about either. I expect to see low prices get lower, and high prices get higher…until they don’t. In short, I expect more of the same, but perhaps from different angles, because while the landscape may look different, it is still populated by the same terrible, wonderful flawed beings. The more things Change…

Be careful out there.

Closed trade

This trade was not pretty. It was nearly stopped out several times. Somewhat of a bummer, since it started out so well. It did hit a high for the day last hour, but that faded in a few minutes. That's just the nature of this game, and a big part of the reason it's one of the hardest but most rewarding games a person can play. (See: Endowment effect)
I'd rather just take the scratch and wait until the weekend is over, since spreads will widen to at least 10 and probably 20 pips. That wouldn't leave much room for the typical Sunday slop, making the chances of getting stopped out just too high to justify staying in this trade. There will be better opportunities to lose some money on Monday. In light of these considerations, I've hit the sell button and canceled the pending order.

Previous equity: $346.37
Change: +$1.81
% Change: +0.52%

Current closed equity: $348.18
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Plan in effect!

Oz has broken higher, and got within 20 pips of hitting the risk-free point before pulling back a bit. This is the action we like to see... the decisively profit-producing kind.

Pending order(2): Short 4558 AUD/USD at 0.6794

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: Long 9116 AUD/USD at 0.6737
Current exposure: 57 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Plan C...

...just like Plans A & B but with new packaging.

Pending order(1): Long 9116 AUD/USD at 0.6737
Pending order(2): Short 4558 AUD/USD at 0.6794
Initial stop: 0.6680
Initial exposure: 57 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

This is my largest position size yet... just shy of a full mini-lot. Let's see what it feels like with every tick worth 91 cents!

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Bah!

I canceled those orders too... seems like there just aren't any great ideas to play right now. We'll see what develops when Euroland wakes up. Tomorrow is NFP day, so there should be no shortage of action.


Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Maybe this instead....

I've canceled the pending JPY orders in favor of going for a long in EUR/JPY. Yes... totally different direction, but I like the look of this idea better. We will see which was the dumb idea... or perhaps they are equally bad.

Pending order (1): Long 5196 EUR/JPY at 125.03
Pending order (2): Short 2598 EUR/JPY at 126.03
Initial stop: 124.03
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Ok, here's the plan...

If USD/JPY takes out today's low, I'm shorting it. The break, if there is one should be decisive, and if not, I'll get out... perhaps before I get stopped out. Regardless, the stop is relatively tight.

Pending order(1): Short 6,662 USD/JPY at 97.48
Pending order(2): Long 3,331 USD/JPY at 96.70
Initial stop: 98.26
Initial exposure: 78 pips, $51.96 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Whacked again!

Stopped out at 11:11am. Everyone's got the risk-aversion fever again today it seems. Not sure what the next move is, but I'm glad I moved up that stop.

Previous equity: $314.54
Change: +$31.83
%Change: +10.12%

Current closed equity: $346.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop move

Moved the stop up to 0.6770, since if this hour's low (0.6789) is taken out, it's a pretty bearish signal. In fact, if that does happen, a short is a pretty good idea.

Current open equity: $359.27
Starting equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: Locked in +$31.74 or +10.09% of starting equity

Worked out allright

The pair popped nicely through the risk-free point, I'm assuming because of whatever the BOE had to say, although I haven't checked the news. If I see an opportune time to put a stack on, I'll do it, of course.

Current open equity: $384.76
Starting equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: 0

Ok, THAT'S never happened before!

My buy order got hit at 2:03 am. Then at 3:31 am, when the price had gained the 67 pips needed for a risk-free trade, OANDA canceled the sell order! I have now figured out why. When I set those orders to close 1/2 the position, I always set them with a stop-loss since OANDA doesn't have order-cancel-order functionality. This way I don't need to worry about getting stopped out of the main position and then getting the other order hit during wild swings. This time, however I put the stop too close to the sell price, and OANDA's system canceled the order. I shall need to be more careful placing that stop next time, making sure that it isn't inside the spread.
Now I'm in long, and profitable, but price has fallen back from where the order in question was. I've gone ahead and placed it again.

Pending order(3): Short 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6814


Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: Long 7042 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Current exposure: 67 pips, $47.18 or 15.00%

Yet another shot

The Oz has stopped dropping for now, and appears to be sitting at the bottom of a rising channel. This is a good place to put on a long if it can get above the highs of the last few hourly bars. If it breaks the recent lows, the idea will be proven wrong, so that's where the stop-out will occur.

Pending order(1): Long 7042 AUD/USD at 0.6747
Pending order(2): Short 3521 AUD/USD at 0.6814
Initial stop: 0.6680
Initial exposure: 67 pips, $47.18 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Knocked right outta there!

Stopped out in not too long at all. This is how it should be... it's great when bad ideas get proven so as quickly as possible. I guess we'll have to wait a bit before we see higher prices in this pair. Other opportunities will likely appear someplace else before that time, but I'll be watching.

Previous equity: $302.87
Change: +$11.67
% Change: +3.85%
Yes... I was up by almost 33% at one point, but nearly 4% in two days is not too bad. I never said the swings would be pretty or easy to handle. (I can't wait to see what happens when $4,000 turns into $3,000 in a day!)

Current closed equity: $314.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying again

I went ahead and got long as the AUD broke lower towards what should be decent support. I'm only risking 50 pips with the same size as the stack that got knocked off.

Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6861
Initial stop: 0.6811
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $11.36 or 3.75% of starting equity


Current open equity: $332.31
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68685 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $11.35 or 3.75% of starting equity

Stack knocked down

Around 9 pm yesterday evening, the Aussie retraced some of its admittedly huge rally and hit the first price where I flatten 1/2 the position. The second point was nearly hit as well, but the pair has since recovered so I'm holding on. If I see some more bullish price action, I may attempt to press this trade again.

Current open equity: $354.16
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6876 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity

Stack success!

While I was out taking care of some errands, the Oz went ahead and broke higher, achieving risk-free status on the second leg in just over an hour. Nice!

I've needed to remove the stop-losses since OANDA consolidated both legs into the same position. I've placed orders to flatten 1/2 the position at the breakeven on the 2nd leg (0.6885) and the original entry point on the 1st leg (0.68136). This will lock in 1/2 the risk on the 1st leg as a gain. ($22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity)

Current open equity: $393.93
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.6876 (avg.)
Current exposure: Locked in $22.71 or 7.50% of starting equity

Stack 'er up...

Attempting to stack on another long leg at the break of the inside bar that formed last hour. Taking the same sized trade with a bit more than 1/2 the pip risk.

Pending order (3): Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.6939
Pending order (4): Short 2271 AUD/USD at 0.6993
Initial stop: 0.6885
Initial exposure: 54 pips, $24.53 or 8.10% of starting equity

Current open equity: $346.28
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 0

Ka-BOOM!

Nice! Again, I love it when the trade achieves risk-free status in less than an hour. And this time, I'm on the right side of the carry, so hopefully I can stay on this one awhile. I'll be looking for an appropriate place to stack, of course.

Current open equity: $350.23
Starting equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 2271 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 0

Long down under now

Oz is looking like it may go higher after having consolidated for a few days.

Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Pending order (2): Short 2271 AUD/USD at 0.69136
Initial stop: 0.67136
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $45.42 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $302.87
Current position: Long 4542 AUD/USD at 0.68136
Current exposure: 100 pips, $45.42 or 15.00%

Trades closed for blowing chunks

The stack trade was just awful after the first 10 minutes or so. It was nearly stopped out several times. I'm not really bearish on this pair at these levels, and the price action wasn't making the bear case look any more attractive. I decided to close out both legs (at 1.5835) and look for greener pastures. Not that I should be complaining about 300 pip wins in a few hours, and perhaps this will prove to be a boneheaded move... but what's done is now done. And this is a new closing equity high, so I've got that going for me... which is nice.

Previous equity: $238.44
Change: +$64.43
% Change: +27.02%

Current closed equity: $302.87
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stack on!

Trade triggered about 5 minutes ago...

Pending order (4): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.5752


Current open equity: $327.64
Current position: Short 5364 GBP/USD at 1.5922 (avg)
Current exposure: 50 pips, $17.88 or 7.50% of starting equity ($238.44)

Pressing the trade

The past couple of hours have drawn a consolidation pattern offering a low-risk entry point for another short. I'm risking 1/2 the amount of pips on the same size as last trade.

Pending order (3): Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.5802
Pending order (4): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.5752

Initial stop: 1.5852
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $17.88 or 7.50% of starting equity ($238.44)

Current open equity: $317.49
Current position: Short 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 0

Nice!

I love it when a trade achieves risk-free status in under an hour. Naturally I'll be looking for a place to stack in an additional short once things go into a consolidation.

Current open equity: $285.05
Starting equity: $238.44
Current position: Short 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 0

Here we go...

Trade just triggered. Starting to produce a bit of profit too...


Pending order (2): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6062

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Current exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Shifting gears

The Oz seems to be weak today, and I don't want to sit around waiting for it to get up and go someplace. GBP looks weak too, so I'm going to go for a short there if the day's low is taken out.

Pending order (1): Short 3576 GBP/USD at 1.6162
Pending order (2): Long 1788 GBP/USD at 1.6062

Initial stop: 1.6262
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And...

The next idea is to go long this same pair if Thursday's high is exceeded.

Pending order (1): Long 3576 AUD/USD at 0.6898
Pending order (2): Short 1788 AUD/USD at 0.6998

Initial stop: 0.6798
Initial exposure: 100 pips, $35.76 or 15.00%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out

Trade was stopped out during the Sunday session.


Previous equity: $281.71
Change: -$43.27
% Change: -15.36%

Current closed equity: $238.44
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0