Locked in more still

Trade is up by a stunning 800 pips! That's one hell of a move, even in the Formerly Great British Pound. 550 are locked in.

Current closed equity: $28.95
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +550 pips locked in, +$41.25 or +142.49%

Locked in more...

Locked in 350. Wow, what a wild day yesterday was! I can't wait to see what happens next...

Current closed equity: $28.95 (carry dragging on me a bit)
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +350 pips locked in, +$26.25 or +90.67%

Whoa!

Now that's a nice move! The rate dropped by more than 300 pips in 4 hours. Definitely locking in a nice chunk. Trade is up by 570 pips... I'll certainly be keeping 300.

Current closed equity: $29.40
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +300 pips locked in, +$22.50 or +76.53%

50 more locked in

Trade is currently up by 300 pips. Still giving it plenty of room...

Current closed equity: $29.40
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +100 pips locked in, +$7.50 or +25.51%

Well, what do you know?

The trade is still open, and I haven't moved the stop. It's been up very nicely, and it has come within 50 pips of stopping out. We'll see what happens.

Regarding the images... The markets are considering one of these two clowns to be a superior credit risk. Credit default swaps on the topmost clown are trading at 30 basis points. The clown below rates 29 bps. This is as it should be... the guy on the bottom does something useful for the human race-- namely keeping this trader happily stuffed with double cheeseburger deliciousness for the paltry sum of 1 Federal Reserve Note each! The lying, larcenous murderer on the top, however, has done nothing but threaten my life at every turn, insist he's doing me a favor, and force me to pay for the privilege. Thanks to Lila Rajiva for bringing this development to my attention.

Current closed equity: $29.40 (Losing a bit on carry.)
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +50 pips locked in, +$3.75 or +12.76%

Locked in 50

Trade up by a nice 170+ pips! I'm giving it plenty of room... but I'm definitely keeping 50 pips for my trouble.

Current closed equity: $29.54
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: +50 pips locked in, +$3.75 or +12.69%

Stop moved

Stop to breakeven. Trade was up by 50 pips, and things are pretty wild again, but if this retraces it's just not the move I was looking for.

Current closed equity: $29.54
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: 0

And there's the break

We're in!


Current closed equity: $29.54
Current position: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Current exposure: $3.75 or 12.69%

A better spot...

... from which to fade this rally has appeared.

Pending order: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8566
Initial stop: 1.8616
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $3.75 or 12.69%



Current closed equity: $29.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next setup...

Pending order: Short 750 GBP/USD at 1.8457
Initial stop: 1.8507
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $3.75 or 12.69%



Current closed equity: $29.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And again...

Add another one to the pile of false breakouts. Well, now I have a new low to short... and at least it wasn't too far from the prior one.

Previous equity: $33.97
Pip change: -50
Change: -$4.52
% Change: -13.31%

Current closed equity: $29.45
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Wasn't expecting it so soon, but we're in...

Current closed equity: $33.97
Current position: Short 900 GBP/USD at 1.8469
Current exposure: $4.50 or 13.25%

New setup

GBP/USD has been trading in a rather tight range the past couple of days... especially considering the action of recent weeks. If the bottom of the range is broken, I want to be short.

Pending order: Short 900 GBP/USD at 1.8469
Initial stop: 1.8519
Initial exposure: 50 pips, $4.50 or 13.25%



Current closed equity: $33.97
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

No dice.

Blah... this trade blew chunks from the very start. Can't say I'm real surprised. This pair has resolutely refused to hold a breakout all day. Such action is to be expected, since most breakouts are false. I'm probably done for the day, but I'll be watching to see if anything interesting develops.

Previous equity: $39.54
Pip change: -42
Change: -$5.57
% Change: -14.09%

Current closed equity: $33.97
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Low of the day broken. Not winning any prizes so far, but we'll see...

Current closed equity: $39.54
Current position: Short 1325 EUR/USD from 1.4633
Current exposure: $5.57 or 14.09%

Ugh

Remember when a 50 pip move on the Euro meant something? Wild volatility continues unabated.
Will go long again above 1.4701 with 1325 units, 42 pip stop. Also, should the rate fall to 1.4633, I'll short it - also risking 42 pips.

Previous equity: $41.49
Pip change: -14
Change: -$1.95
% Change: -4.7%

Current closed equity: $39.54
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop moved to 1.4672... that's about 1/3 of the original amount at risk. I didn't move to breakeven, because this idea won't be proven wrong until the low of this hour is taken out. Furthermore, if it is taken out, that will be a pretty good signal to go short. So far, this trade has been up by about 60 pips.

Current closed equity: $41.49
Current position: Long 1400 EUR/USD from 1.4686
Current exposure: $1.96 or 4.72%

Trade triggered

Here we go... moving the right way so far... subject to change at any moment.



Current closed equity: $41.49
Current position: Long 1400 EUR/USD from 1.4686
Current exposure: $5.88 or 14.17%

DIBS setup on EUR

An inside bar setup has formed on EUR/USD.

Pending order: Long 1400 EUR/USD from 1.4686
Initial stop: 1.4644
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $5.88 or 14.17%

Current closed equity: $41.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out.

Not surprisingly, this trade pretty much sucked from the get-go. These markets are in just terrible condition. Spreads are abnormally high, and there are very strange gaps in liquidity. It is very unusual to see 7-8 pip gaps between ticks except during news releases. I suppose with every two-bit hack politician flapping their gums about how they are going to screw up the markets even worse, I can understand the lack of participation.

Current closed equity: $41.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

We're in!

Current closed equity: $46.64
Current position: Short 1250 GBP/USD from 1.8482
Current exposure: $5.25 or 11.26%

Next idea

Short GBP/USD on a break of the day's low.

Pending order: Short 1250 GBP/USD from 1.8482
Initial stop: 1.8524
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $5.25 or 11.26%

Current closed equity: $46.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trailing stop hit...

The stop finally got hit around 3 o'clock this morning. Not bad at all. The next setup is probably another long.

Previous equity: $18.42
Pip change: +450
Change: +$28.24
% Change: +153.31%


Current closed equity: $46.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

And 44 more...

Trade was up by 600 pips... this is what we train for!


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +450 pips locked in, +$28.12 or 152.66%

And another 40...

Trade has been up by 560 pips. Nice!


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +406 pips locked in, +$25.37 or 137.76%

Make that 366...

Trade broke higher still... up by over 500 pips! (We like!)


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +366 pips locked in, +$22.87 or 124.16%

Yet more locked in...

Got another 30. Trade is up by 460 pips.


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +310 pips locked in, +$19.37 or 105.16%

Whoa!

This baby is moving! Got another 30 pips.


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +280 pips locked in, +$17.50 or 95.01%

Keeping on keeping on...

Trade has been up to +380 pips. Locking in 230 of those.


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +230 pips locked in, +$14.37 or 78%

Locked in some mo'

Locked in another 50 pips.


Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +200 pips locked in, +$12.50 or 67.86%

Locked in more still

Hit +300 pips last hour!

Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +150 pips locked in, +$9.37 or 50.87%

Locking more in

Moved stop up by 30 pips.

Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +80 pips locked in, +$5.00 or 27.14%

Took another one...

Set one last order on Friday to go long at one pip over the day's high. It did get hit, but I couldn't see exactly what happened because OANDA was down for maintenance when I got back to the terminal. What happened was nice... position is up around 200 pips, and 50 are locked in.

Current closed equity: $18.42
Current position: Long 625 EUR/USD at 1.4262
Current exposure: +50 pips locked in, +$3.12 or 16.9%

Hmmph

Well, that position lasted all of 13 minutes. Double bummer. I guess it's just not my week. Next week will be better, one would hope. That makes an 83.5% drawdown so far. Actually, I fully expected to have drawdowns that big... I guess I didn't expect it right off the bat. Well, then again, those sorts of things are randomly distributed, so I had no reason *not* to expect it. There is no option but to trade through it.

Current closed equity: $18.36
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Here we go again...

For better or worse, the trade is on...
Not winning any prizes so far.


Current closed equity: $21.41
Current position: Long 725 EUR/USD from 1.4259
Current exposure: $3.05 or 14.25%

It's as good a place as any...

Settting up the next shot at the long side...

Pending order: Long 725 EUR/USD from 1.4259
Initial stop: 1.4217
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $3.05 or 14.25%


Current closed equity: $21.41
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

That may be a record...

The order got triggered while I was away last night, and I was in the position for about 8 minutes before getting stopped out. Bummer.

Current closed equity: $21.41
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up once again...

This time I'm going to try to come at it from a lower level.

Pending order: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4270
Initial stop: 1.4228
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $3.57 or 14.29%

Current closed equity: $24.97
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Same crap...

... just later in the day. It is nearly impossible to hold a position with any kind of reasonable stop in this environment. Stopped out at breakeven again.

Current closed equity: $24.98
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Seen this movie before?

I'm hoping the ending will be different this time around...

Stop moved to breakeven after trade reached 100+ pips.

Current closed equity: $24.97
Current position: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4356
Current exposure: 0

Same trade taken

We're in! Let's see what happens this time (again)...

Current closed equity: $24.97
Current position: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4356
Current exposure: $3.57 or 14.3%

Damn!

These markets sure are volatile! Stopped out at breakeven. Will set it up again if I can....

Current closed equity: $24.97
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Trade is up by about 110 pips. Stop to breakeven.


Current closed equity: $24.95
Current position: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4356
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

We're in! Let's see what happens this time...

Current closed equity: $24.95
Current position: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4356
Current exposure: $3.57 or 14.31%

Next idea

Pending order: Long 850 EUR/USD from 1.4356
Initial stop: 1.4314
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $3.57 or 14.31%

This is the high of the last hour, which probed lower but was rejected, and will put the pair above the open if this high is exceeded.

Current closed equity: $24.95
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trying again.

This time Short USD/JPY from 105.017, which may not last through my getting this entry typed.
Stop: 105.437

Current closed equity: $28.89
Current position: Short 980 USD/JPY from 105.017
Current exposure: 42 pips, $4.12 or 14.26%

So much for that idea

Stopped out in less than 15 minutes.

Current closed equity: $28.89
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going for another idea

This time short USD/JPY.

Short 1125 USD/JPY at 104.853
Initial stop 105.273

Current closed equity: $33.37
Current position: Short 1125 USD/JPY at 104.853
Current exposure: $4.73 or 14.17%

Just a tough time...

Stopped out again after being up nicely. 100 pip swings in an hour are unusual, even for Cable. They're also tough to trade, since stops need to be very wide with everyone panicking at every little wiggle and pushing through support and resistance levels. No matter... i just keep my head down and take the beatings as they come.

Current closed equity: $33.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Long 1025 GBP/USD at 1.7913
Initial stop: 1.7871

We're in! Let the clobbering begin!

Current closed equity: $37.68
Current position: Long 1025 GBP/USD at 1.7913
Current exposure: $4.31 or 11.44%

DIBS setup in GBP

Pending order: Long 1025 GBP/USD at 1.7913
Initial stop: 1.7871
Initial exposure: -42 pips, $4.31 or 11.44%

Current closed equity: $37.68
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Better than usual.

The trade got triggered at 8pm last night. I was not near a computer until more than 12 hours later. The trade made it all the way to +100 pips or so, but fell back to the entry point this morning. Taking a breakeven beats taking a loss. Made a couple of pennies on positive carry as well.
We'll see where we're at here, but I think I still want to be long this pair.

Current closed equity: $37.68
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Putting it where I should have.

This time, the order is going at the actual high of the 2pm candle instead of just at the previous entry price.

Pending order: Long 1300 EUR/USD at 1.4172
Initial stop: 1.4130
Initial exposure: -42 pips, $5.46 or 14.51%

Current closed equity: $37.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Answer:

Same shit as last time. I guess the time for this idea is not yet upon us.


Current closed equity: $37.64
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Long 1525 EUR/USD at 1.4159

We're in(again)! Let's see what happens (this time)...




Current closed equity: $44.15
Current position: Long 1525 EUR/USD at 1.4159
Current exposure: $6.41 or 14.52%

Can't buy a break...

Whacked again. Setting up for the same trade again, with less size this time, obviously. (1525 units)

Current closed equity: $44.15
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Long 1800 EUR/USD at 1.4159

We're in! Let's see what happens...




Current closed equity: $51.71
Current position: Long 1800 EUR/USD at 1.4159
Current exposure: $7.56 or 14.62%

Next setup...

EUR/USD broke lower on Fed release. If this hour's high is taken out, I want to be long. I want to be long this pair anyway, and getting long at a place where lots of shorts are proven wrong is a good idea.

Long 1800 EUR/USD at 1.4159
Initial stop: 1.4117
Initial exposure: -42pips, $7.56 or 14.62%

Current closed equity: $51.71
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out.

Once more, a whack to the head. No sense in trying to figure out the reasons or to complain about it. It's part of the game, and the very reason that most people can't make any money at it. Done for the day unless something else looks interesting after the Fed release.


Current closed equity: $51.71
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Took the opportunity to short USD/JPY as it dropped through this hour's low. If it exceeds this hour's high, I'm out. The idea is that we've bounced from a touch of a descending hourly trend-line.

Short 2,000 USD/JPY from 104.97
Initial stop: 105.32
Initial exposure: -35 pips, $7.00 or 11.96%

Gave me a couple of pips right off, but now taking them back. Pretty wild times with storied Wall Street firms like AIG blowing up left and right. We shall see...

Current closed equity: $58.55
Current position: Short 2,000 USD/JPY from 104.97
Current exposure: $7.00 or 11.96%

Cancelled pending order

JPY broke higher to 105 area. This may be a superior level from which to sell anyway.

Current closed equity: $58.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Switching pairs

The Dollar seems weakest against the Yen, so I'm taking a shot at a short USD/JPY position from 103.54. 2000 units, 42 pip stop, exposure $8.40 or 14.34%.


Current closed equity: $58.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Next setup...

Looking to go long above today's high at 1.4284. Taking 2,000 units with a 42 pip stop for an exposure of $8.40 or 14.34%.


Current closed equity: $58.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out.

This stop out happened yesterday soon after the trade was placed, but the phone line and therefore the internet connection went down at my location. It is still not restored, and I've switched locations.

Current closed equity: $58.55
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Long 2350 EUR/USD at 1.4200
Initial stop: 1.4158
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $9.87 or 14.43%

Broke nicely at first... now retracing back below the entry price. We'll see....

Current closed equity: $68.41
Current position: Long 2350 EUR/USD at 1.4200
Current exposure: 42 pips, $9.87 or 14.43%

Moved pending order

Moved order to take a long at 1.42, since that will be a breakout of a consolidation pattern. Volatility is very high, so I consider this ok to be trying to go long on such a big down day... reason being that the 'short Euro' trade has been working for weeks and is now pretty crowded.

Current closed equity: $68.41
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stopped out

Wow.. that was quick! I guess it wasn't such a great place for a long after all.
Will set up for another long at the high of this hour-- 2350 units at 1.4253.

Previous equity: $80.20
Pip change: -42
Change: -$11.79
% Change: -14.7%

Current closed equity: $68.41
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Suppose now's ok too

Went long at 1.4229, right in this area which was resistance last week, and should now be support as we're approaching from the top. With there having been a gap, I know there was demand in this area, and we've had a period of selling during an uptrend that has poked right down into a place where recently demand exceeded supply. Good place to try a long... even with the open waaaaay up there.

Current closed equity: $59.15
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4229
Current exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.66%

Not great, but not bad...

I should have known that gap would get filled. Still, anytime you grab 101 pips, you have to call that good. The retracement in the dollar has likely begun. I'm searching for another place to get long, but it might not be today with the pair being 200 pips below the open.

Previous equity: $59.15
Pip change: +101
Change: +$21.05 (got a little positive-carry on that one)
% Change: +35.6%

Current closed equity: $80.20
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop moved up to lock in 101 pips.

Current closed equity: $59.15
Current position: Long 2050 EUR/USD at 1.4179
Current exposure: 101 pips locked in, +$20.70 or +35%

Stop to breakeven

Moved stop up to 1.4180, keeping at least 1 pip for my trouble. So far, trade is up very nicely by about 140 pips. Let's hope it keeps on going.

Current closed equity: $59.15
Current position: Long 2050 EUR/USD at 1.4179
Current exposure: 1 pip locked in, +$0.20 or +0.34%

Now what?

The shorts are getting blown up today. Probably about time. Set up an order to buy 2050 EUR/USD at a 3-day high of 1.4179. It just got triggered as I was typing this. I decided to buy there because a violent snap-back will have to go through there on it's way back up to the 20day moving average. It's risky, but that's why I play this game.

Current closed equity: $59.15
Current position: Long 2050 EUR/USD at 1.4179
Current exposure: 42 pips, $8.61 or 14.56%

There's no pain quite like it...

Well, after watching this trade get up over 180 pips, I had to watch it go back and take out the stop at breakeven. I did keep one pip for my trouble... not that it matters a whole lot. I didn't even get the consolation prize of positive carry, so in reality, this significant winner turned into a very small loss.
Why would anyone do this to themselves? Trades like this are what make trading so maddeningly hard. It is why 95% of retail forex traders lose all their money. It's placing too much significance on one trade in a series of hundreds that causes the trader to take the actions that lead to big losses instead of big gains.
What could I have done to make sure this trade landed in the 'WIN' column?
1) I could have trailed the stop closer. That would work, but it means that over time I'd be limiting myself to small winners. Unless my entries are always optimal, there will usually be significant retracements in trades that go on to make big gains. Trailing too closely kills good trades too soon.

2) I could have taken some size off along the way. The problem with scaling out is that you don't have much size on if you get a major move. Your equity curve will be smoother and easier to handle psychologically, and each trade will be easier to handle psychologically, but gains will not be maximized.

3) I could have set a closer target like 100 or 150 pips. Sure... but then I couldn't get 200, 500, or 700 pips on this trade... and if you look at the recent action in the Euro, you can see that such moves are possible in a couple of days. Moves like that are where the real money is.

It comes down to the fact that the psychologically most difficult way to trade is the most profitable way to trade. He who wants to make the money no one else is making must be willing to bear the whips and scorns that others are not willing to bear. Imagine how hard it will be when the money on the line is $20 per pip, instead of $0.20!

So what's the plan now? Looking at the EUR/USD, it would appear that we have a potential reversal pattern on the daily chart. We are already significantly above today's open, so I'm going to look to get long on a pullback. Hopefully the PPI and retail sales releases will give us one to work with.

Current closed equity: $59.15
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Sitting tight

Trade is up pretty nicely as EUR/USD has taken a nosedive since last night along with gold, kiwi, Oz, and everything else that isn't the Dollar or the Yen. I am not a big fan of aggressively trailing stops. If this position should gain more than 200 pips, I'll think about either closing it or locking in 100, but until then I'm letting it sit.

Current closed equity: $59.21
Current position: Short 2100 EUR/USD @ 1.40543
Current exposure: +1 pip locked in, +$0.21 or + 0.35%

Stop moved

Stop moved to breakeven -1 pip.

Current closed equity: $59.23
Current position: Short 2100 EUR/USD @ 1.40543
Current exposure: +1 pip locked in, +$0.21 or + 0.35%

Let's try again...

Short 2100 EUR/USD @ 1.40543
Initial stop: 1.40963




Current closed equity: $59.23
Current position: Short 2100 EUR/USD @ 1.40543
Current exposure: $8.82 or 14.89%

Just one more...

...in the long, miserable series of painful kicks in the crotch.
Some other opportunity will present itself.

Previous equity: $68.88
Pip change: -50
Change: -$9.65
% Change: -14.01%

Current closed equity: $59.23
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade triggered

Short 1925 GBP @ 1.7548
Initial stop: 1.7598




Current closed equity: $68.88
Current position: Short 1925 GBP @ 1.7548
Current exposure: $9.63 or 13.98%

New pending order

Looking to get short on GBP.

Pending order: Short 1925 GBP @ 1.7548
Initial stop: 1.7598
Initial exposure: -50 pips, $9.63 or 13.98%



Current closed equity: $68.88
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Jacked once again.

Will see if anything else is worth a shot.

Previous equity: $80.63
Pip change: -42
Change: -$11.75
% Change: -14.57%

Current closed equity: $68.88
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Order triggered

Current Closed Equity: $80.63
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4133
Current exposure: $11.76 or 14.59%

Moved order

Another potential setup has presented itself. This violates my usual rule about being long while below the open, but as I've said before, that's only a general guideline. The setup is a break of the high of the lowest low of the last 20 hours.

Pending order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4133
Initial stop: 1.4091
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.59%

Current Closed Equity: $80.63
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Just can't catch a break...

Stopped out again. Pending order still pending.

Pending order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.72 or 8.33%

Current Closed Equity: $80.63
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop moved down to breakeven -1. Pending order still pending, and if it gets hit, it will be with the same size as this trade now, since there will be no loss. I'll cancel that order later today if it doesn't get hit.

Pending order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.72 or 8.33%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: +1 pip locked in, +$0.28 or +0.35%

Pending order

If this original setup fails, I'll take the long signal. Calculating what my equity will be at that time and then figuring out the position size is a simple matter. After the loss on this trade, equity would be at $73.38. I multiply that by 50, the leverage factor, to get $3669 and divide by the entry price 1.4170, which gives 2589 units. I'll round that down to 2550, and that's the size on the next order.

Pending order: Long 2550 EUR/USD at 1.4170
Initial stop: 1.4146
Initial exposure: 24 pips, $6.12 or 8.34%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: $7.00 or 8.71%

Taking a different setup...

A short setup appeared called a DIBS setup. This is a break of an 'inside bar', where the high and low of an hour's prices are contained within the high and low of the previous hour. The 4am bar displays this setup, and the 5am bar broke the low and is under the open price. This is a low risk setup, because the stop is placed at the opposite extreme of the inside bar that was broken.
Additionally, this particular example of this setup gives a signal in the opposite direction if this first trade should fail.

Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Initial stop: 1.4169
Initial exposure: 25 pips, $7.00 or 8.71%

Current Closed Equity: $80.38
Current position: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4144
Current exposure: $7.00 or 8.71%

Setting up for pain once again...

Pretty much nothing in the way of scheduled news today. Crude oil inventories might cause some motion, or maybe not. I'm looking to short the Euro if it breaks the low it established earlier this morning.

Pending Order: Short 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4120
Initial stop: 1.4162
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.63%

Current closed equity: $80.38
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

What else is new?

After being up over 100 pips, the pair reversed and took out the stop. Almost to the tick, and then started heading back up. Guess that was the wrong place to put the stop. Will see if anything interesting develops.

Current closed equity: $80.37
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved to breakeven +1

Trade showed a gain of 74 pips at one point. OANDA finally decided to get their shit together and let me back into the platform. I really don't get what is going on over there... they do realize that if we traders can't trade that we'll go elsewhere and they'll be out of business, right? RIGHT?!
Anyway, stop is moved. Let's hope this one goes for a few thousand pips.

Current Closed Equity: $80.06
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Current exposure: +1pip locked in, +$0.28 or 0.35%

Taking the Long shot again

OANDA having another 'moment', but I can tell the order was triggered. Not the greatest so far, but we'll see.

Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Initial stop: 1.4075
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.69%

Current Closed Equity: $80.06
Current position: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4117
Current exposure: $11.76 or 14.69%

Cancelled pending orders.

There will likely be a better time and place to get into this pair. It has dropped significantly from where I was considering taking a long position. I'll wait until after the econ news release at 10am, then we'll see where we're at.

Current closed equity: $80.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Setting up long

I can't say I like this setup too much, but that's not a reason not to take it. The misgivings I have are because the EUR/USD has already moved 100+ pips from the open. Volatility is very high right now, and this pair has been shorted like crazy for several days now, so there should be plenty of people poised to panic as the pair goes higher, so I think this has a shot at working. I suppose I also don't want it to work, since it's against my position in another account. No matter...

Pending Order: Long 2800 EUR/USD at 1.4202
Initial stop: 1.4160
Initial exposure: 42 pips, $11.76 or 14.69%

Current closed equity: $80.06
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

@@#^&*(#&#$!!!!!!

Well, I know I got stopped out, which is enough of a bitch... but OANDA is having one of its 'moments' again where access just freezes up and I can't tell just what kind of pittance I escaped with. It wasn't much, I know that.

Flat for now. Not taking any new positions either, since tomorrow will be a new day to go after the EUR or GBP. I hate trading the JPY intraday, and I do it very rarely... moves of this sort being the primary reason.

Stop moved

Stop moved down to breakeven -1 pip at 108.525.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535
Current exposure: +$0.275 or +0.34%

Short USD/JPY

Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535, initial stop 108.955, exposure 42 pips, $11.55, or 14.46%.

This pair hasn't done much this morning. The theme this morning is massive dollar strength, but not much strength against the Yen. I'm going to bet against the dollar where it is the weakest. JPY is below its open, and has been probing lower, so I've shorted it on a pullback. So far, not looking like the best plan, but we'll see.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: Short 2750 USD/JPY @ 108.535
Current exposure: $11.55, or 14.46%

Canceled pending order

Wow! That was one hell of a move to start off the week... I may be looking for another pair to trade, since I think we've pretty well blown the daily range on EUR/USD already.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

A new week begins...

Setting up to go long 2750 EUR/USD at 1.4429, which is a break of a recent hourly inside bar to the upside. Initial stop is 1.4387 for an exposure of 42pips, $11.55, or 14.46%. Placed order and going to bed... either it gets hit or doesn't, and either way is ok.

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Rocked again.

Stopped out. May set up again, but maybe not.

Previous equity: $93.49
Pip change: -42
Change: -$13.63
% Change: -14.58%

Current closed equity: $79.86
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going for the Long shot again

Long 3250 EUR/USD from 1.4319 at 8:44a.

Initial stop: 1.4277

This idea came about because the pair broke the day's high, clearly putting it above the open. It also broke the initial high that was put in on the NFP release. We know a snapback in the EUR has to happen sometime... when or from where is unknowable, but if this is it, I'm in the right position. So far it's been El Choppo.

Current closed equity: $93.49
Current position: Long 3250 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $13.65 or 14.6%

Trade closed for blowing chunks.

EUR broke its low, but then began reversing and took out the high of the hourly bar that contained the low. That is a possible reversal, and even if it isn't, a stop that is less than about 50 pips away is almost certain to get taken out on an NFP release. I can always re-enter after NFP if anything looks interesting.

Previous equity: $88.65
Pip change: +16
Change: +$4.84
% Change: +5.46%

Current closed equity: $93.49
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Stop to breakeven -1 pip at 1.4265.




Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: Short 3050 EUR/USD
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.30 or +0.003%

Let's see if we can get lower.

Short 3050 EUR/USD from 1.4266 at 4:09a.

Initial stop: 1.4308

Trade began producing profits immediately, which is the point of the game. We've just challenged yesterday's low, which held, but may give way soon. Also, this is NFP day, so this could be very interesting. If this pair retraces too much and is sitting too close to breakeven when NFP is about to come out, I will close it. In fact, I'm moving the stop to breakeven next hour.

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: Short 3050 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $12.81 or 14.45%

Cancelled pending orders.

Whoo! Some stunning moves today! And equities are getting clobbered... again! There's an interesting cross-current developing. The much maligned Greenback has been doing stunningly well against the EUR and the GBP, but it's at a 20-day low against the JPY. Now, we all know that the JPY is an even bigger joke than the USD, and that it tends to be inversely correlated with US equities. This is due to the fact that since Yen are so cheap to borrow, big institutions do so and put the proceeds into equities in search of higher yields. They also put those borrowed Yen into higher yielding currencies. When those trades go badly, the marginal players start selling equities and currencies to buy Yen and pay back the loans. Hence, equities down, Yen up.
Earlier in the year, we had the USD getting slaughtered against everything, including JPY. Now the Dollar is strong against everything but the Yen. This suggests that the EU and British economies will be in even worse shape than the US, which itself won't be winning any beauty contests. If this situation persists, there are going to be some more great shorting opportunities in the JPY crosses. The GBP/JPY cross is already at a 3-year low- down about 500 pips for the week. We may even have a 'breakaway gap' on the monthly chart of that pair sitting between last week's close and this week's open. Last time that happened it was early 1993, and the pair finally bottomed in mid 1995 about 5,000 pips lower. The biggest problem with this pair right now is that you can't get paid to short it. GBP still pays a much higher yield, but clearly the markets are signaling that the rate differential is likely to shrink because the Brits will have to lower rates in the face of a recession. With Japan being a perennial basket case as far as rates go, can this pair ever have positive-carry on the short side? Markets do have a funny way of doing the seemingly impossible, so who knows? I know I wouldn't stake my whole account for or against it... that's for sure.

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

That was quick...

Pummeled for another 42 pips in just a few minutes!

Will set up to go long at the top of the breakdown candle (1.4416). Glutton for punishment today I guess. No matter... I expect this endeavor to be incredibly difficult to psychologically endure. Talk about your wild swings! This account hit an intraday high earlier this morning at around $140. That's a swing of 36%. There's a reason this blog is so titled! I have other accounts that I play much more conservatively.

Previous equity: $103.42
Pip change: -42
Change: -$14.77
% Change: -14.28%

Current closed equity: $88.65
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Going for the Long side again...

Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4435 at 10:05a.

Initial stop: 1.4393

I'm betting that there is still demand for this pair down at this level. So far, this hasn't proved to be the most brilliant move, but who knows? Anything can happen...

Current closed equity: $103.42
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $14.81 or 14.32%

An even harder kick in the crotch!

Stopped out. Heartbreaking.

Previous equity: $102.85
Pip change: +1.6 (got some positive carry)
Change: +$0.57
% Change: +0.55%

Current closed equity: $103.42
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

I may just go ahead and re-enter this trade, considering the pair's current behavior. This is one situation where I'm willing to be long while below the open.

How does it feel to be a jackass?

Well, I *had* about 108 pips in this trade... and then the rate fell by about 90 pips this morning! I'm still in it, and I still have the idea that it will get back up there. Recovery is already in progress, but that is one hell of a thing to look at in your account when you're out there swinging with this kind of outrageous leverage. Such is the price of going for the big scores...

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.35 or +0.003%

Stop moved to breakeven +1

Giving this baby plenty of room... so far it's up 70 pips.

Moved stop up to 1.4437 to lock in 1 pip.

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436
Current exposure: +1 pips locked in. +$0.35 or +0.003%

Taking another shot at the upside....

Long 3525 EUR/USD from 1.4436 at 8:08a.

Initial stop: 1.4394

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: Long 3525 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $14.81 or 14.4%

Trade broke higher nicely right away, and then started retracing. We shall see. It's about time the EUR had an up day, but anything can happen...anything at all.

Trade cut short for sucking.

Previous equity: $113.66
Pip change: -28
Change: -$10.81
% Change: -9.51%

Current closed equity: $102.85
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Will set up to go long again if we cross the open at 1.4436.

Maybe down is the right direction again

EUR makes yet another new low... where will it end?

Short 3900 EUR/USD from 1.4389 at 5:03a.

Initial stop: 1.4426

Current closed equity: $113.66
Current position: Short 3900 EUR/USD at 1.4389
Current exposure: $14.43 or 12.7%

So much for that idea!

Previous equity: $129.40
Pip change: -36
Change: -$15.74
% Change: -12.16%

Current closed equity: $113.66
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Trade closed for misbehavior

The hourly bars gave an 'inside bar' break signal in the long direction. With EUR having gotten so oversold over the last few days, I figured this was a low-risk point to try and catch a reversal. If I am wrong, I won't be wrong for long.

Previous equity: $113.04
Pip change: +43
Change: +$16.36
% Change: +14.47%

Long EUR based on DIBS setup at 2:16am:

Long 4425 EUR/USD from 1.4452 at 2:16a.

Initial stop: 1.4416

Current closed equity: $129.40
Current position: Long 4425 EUR/USD
Current exposure: $15.94 or 12.32%

Moved stop...

Moved stop down to 1.4467 to lock in 25 pips.

Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: Short 3800 EUR/USD from 1.4492
Current exposure: +25 pips locked in. +$9.50 or +8.4%

Going for it again...

I generally don't take trades after London close, but the EUR seems to be waking up and doing something.

Short 3800 EUR/USD from 1.4492 at 7:59p.

Initial stop: 1.4532

Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: Short 3800 EUR/USD at 1.4492
Current exposure: $15.20 or 13.45%

Zapped again...

The frustrating thing about waiting for a big move is watching decent sized moves get taken back by the markets. This position was up by 100 pips at one point early this morning. Having to settle for 25 is just no fun at all.

I will set up to short this pair again if this hour's rally fades and takes out this hour's low at 1.4493.

Previous equity: $104.24
Pip change: +25
Change: +$8.80
% Change: +8.44%


Current closed equity: $113.04
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Moved stop down to 1.4541 to lock in 25 pips.

Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: Short 3550 EUR/USD from 1.4566
Current exposure: +25 pips locked in. +$8.87 or +8.51%

Going down again...

Short 3550 EUR/USD from 1.4566 at 2:00a.

Initial stop: 1.4599

Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: Short 3550 EUR/USD at 1.4566
Current exposure: $11.72 or 11.24%

One more kick in the crotch.

Stopped out after the position had been up by more than 40 pips. Those are the breaks. Done for the day, since London close is only 25 minutes away, and the Americans are off celebrating the glories of communism.

Previous equity: $103.60
Pip change: +1.8
Change: +$0.64
% Change: +0.62%


Current closed equity: $104.24
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0

Stop moved

Just moved the stop down to breakeven -2 pips to lock in a very small profit. If the high of this hourly candle is exceeded, it is a probable reversal pattern. Giving it just a couple of pips above the high makes my choice of stop a logical one, since little fake-outs are so common in forex and especially on short-term charts.

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626
Current exposure: +2 pips locked in for +$0.70 or +0.68%

Trade triggered

Short 3500 EUR/USD from 1.4626 at 6:53a.

Initial stop: 1.4650

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626
Current exposure: $8.40 or 8.11%

Not doing anything spectacular so far, but sitting with a small profit which could be worse...

No day off here...

The markets appear to be getting some serious moves on even with the US holiday. There is an 'inside bar' setup in EUR/USD, which I want to short if it breaks to the downside. Setting the order and going back to bed.... either it gets triggered and stopped out with a small loss, goes for a big gain, or doesn't get hit at all.

Pending order: Short 3500 EUR/USD at 1.4626. Initial stop: 1.4650
Risking 24 pips at 35 cents per pip making the exposure on this trade $8.40 or 8.11%.

Current closed equity: $103.60
Current position: flat
Current exposure: 0